Barrons, courtesy of bmclong on yahoo board (his words at the end, not mine):
Interview with Jong-Yong Yun CEO Samsung - NO FLASH GLUT TO COME!!! Highlights:
Q: "What is the most promising part of the business now?"
A: "Semiconductors, especially memory."
*****
Q:"Finally, let's talk about chips. Will there be a glut in flash memeory with Intel and Micron opening up new foundries over the next year?"
A: "I think new entrant are creating a very healthy market, because flash demand is going up faster than new supply comign on stream. As you know, in the past the use of flash was confined to digital still cameras and MP3s. Now there are lots of telecom applications. Demand is growing by leaps and bounds."
Q: "Where do flash prices have to fall before solid-state, or flash-memory, drives gain a big presence in the notebook-computer market?
A: The problem is manufacturer prices are coming down, but memory-storage content of hard drives is also going up...Currently, the high-end notebook uses something like 200 gig of memory. The most we could provide at a reasonable price is 32 gig [of flash memory]. So if you consider that the price of flash is declining maybe 50% annually, and do the math, you'll see that it will take a few more years to have a sizeable presence of flash in the nortebook market. The memory content of the HDD is also going up pretty fast. So you have a moving, not stationary, target."
My take on the last answer. Samsung lacks the incentive to bring the "flash top" to marekt too soon. They are leveraged to the DRAM biz, already ramped up for that production, and enjoy decent market share of HD laptops. Most important it does not have SNDK's IP and R&D dept. It depends on it when it comes to flash. |
