The Future of the Internet II
A survey of technology thinkers and stakeholders shows they believe the internet will continue to spread in a “flattening” and improving world. There are many, though, who think major problems will accompany technology advances by 2020
September 24, 2006
Janna Quitney Anderson, Elon University
Lee Rainie, Director
PEW INTERNET & AMERICAN LIFE PROJECT
1615 L STREET, NW – SUITE 700
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036
Summary of Findings
Technology thinkers and stakeholders assess the future social, political,
and economic impact of the internet.
Hundreds of internet leaders, activists, builders and commentators were asked about the
effect of the internet on social, political and economic life in the year 2020. The views of
the 742 respondents who completed this survey were varied; there is general agreement
about how technology might evolve, but there is less agreement among these respondents
about the impact of this evolution.
Reacting to several scenarios constructed by the Pew Internet & American Life Project,
the respondents struck on several themes and emergent problems in their answers:
- The deployment of a global network: A majority of respondents agreed with a
scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and
will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a
tech-abetted “flattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for
many people who will compete globally.
Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy
climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance,
they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in
policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value.
In addition, a significant number of these dissenters argued that the world will not
flatten enough to wipe away persistent social inequities.
- Human control over technology: Most respondents said they think humans will
remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that
technological progress will eventually create machines and processes that move
beyond human control. Others said they fear that the leaders who exercise control of
the technology might use this power inappropriately.
- Transparency vs. privacy: There is a widespread expectation that people will
wittingly or unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in
the process even as they lose some privacy. Respondents split evenly on whether the
world will be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people and
institutions afforded by the internet: 46% agreed that the benefits of greater
transparency of organizations and individuals would outweigh the privacy costs and
49% disagreed.
- Luddites, technological “refuseniks,” and violence: Most respondents agreed that
there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their
economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will
emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from
“modern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.
But many respondents argue that violence arising from conflicts over religion,
economics, and politics, will be more prevalent.
- Compelling or “addictive” virtual worlds: Many respondents agreed with the
notion that those who are connected online will devote more time to sophisticated,
compelling, networked, synthetic worlds by 2020. While this will foster productivity
and connectedness and be an advantage to many, it will lead to addiction problems
for some. The word “addiction” struck some respondents as an inappropriate term for
the problems they foresaw, while others thought it appropriate.
- The fate of language online: Many respondents said they accept the idea that
English will be the world’s lingua franca for cross-cultural communications in the
next few decades. But notable numbers maintained English will not overwhelm other
languages and, indeed, Mandarin and other languages will expand their influence
online. Most respondents stressed that linguistic diversity is good and that the
internet will allow the preservation of languages and associated cultures. Others
noted that all languages evolve over time and argued that the internet will abet that
evolution.
- Investment priorities: Asked what their priority would be for future investments of
time and money in networking, 78% of the respondents identified two goals for the
world's policy makers and the technology industry to pursue: building network
capacity and spreading knowledge about technology to help people of all nations.
Continued at:
pewinternet.org
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