The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: aryana who wrote (70984)	10/4/2006 8:14:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) of 110194

Even with gas prices falling by 25% its not hard to see that the overall trend is to higher energy prices. Heck OPEC is talking about cutting supply with prices just below 60. How long ago was it when 60 was considered a high price for a barrel of oil? Now the mentality is that $2.25 gallon gas is cheap! Load up the kids honey we are going to have that big Christmas after all! I'd argue that the issue isn't so much the actual price but the "perception" of the relative value of a good or service at a certain price. Obviously, "perceptions" have been drastically altered in the past 5 years. We have to have a name for this. What would you call it? How do you know that a $25 drop is not a change in trend? What about housing? That is everyone's biggest expense. I will state that the evidence strongly sugests lower housing prices. One can not IMO bitch about rising rents while ingnoring falling prices while doing the reverse for the last 3 years. I will not accept it. Now what do you make of $4 generics at Walmart? How about falling truck prices? What about a trend to outsourcing student teaching? What about medical tourism? What about restaurant prices. No No No No one wants to talk about the here and now, now that the here and now does not support the case. Like David Lereah everyone wants to talk YOY or in this case now the last 4 years. Like I said, you can not have it both ways. Please note (and I better scream it): I AM NOT CALLING THIS DEFLATION I have to scream that or my view is likely to be distorted once again. I will say that what is happening is the result of deflationary forces. That is NOT deflation. Not yet. I am waiting for sustained credit contraction. Yes I believe it is coming along with lower prices in general. In fact, it seems that lower prices are coming first. Yet as long as people have been screaming about rising prices here it's really time to look at this honestly: certain people here are playing this both ways, especially with housing vs. rent, and energy prices. Certain people here thought that energy spikes in the wake of Katrina were inflation. Those same hypocrites fail to call this decline in energy prices and home prices as deflation. I have been consistent. I want to see a contraction in credit. So far I have called for it and so far it has not happened and so far (unlike others here who view inflation as prices) I admit it. Mish

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next