Bufford et al. re. SKI -- trotsky, 11:01:44 10/06/06 Fri
Bufford wrote: "ski system...........if your system can't get U out close to the top "
what makes you think it didn't? i have reviewed has calls over the past two years. he DID move out shortly after the top was put in.
as i said in the post that started this discussion, over the past two years his system's calls have been very good. there will of course come a time when it makes a bad call again - my point was only that in view of its recent performance it's a bit over the top to try and use the most recent signal as a contrary indicator.
@the dollar -- trotsky, 10:52:01 10/06/06 Fri
why should the dollar be strong? it can be shown by overlaying a chart of the FF rate with a DXY chart. the dollar historically tends to peak 6-9 months AFTER a Fed rate hike campaign ends.
as an aside, i don't share Lord Jim's idea that the dollar is the only determinant of where gold is going to go - iow, the dollar's relationship to other fiat currencies should not be able to stop a gold bull market. i think Hoye has the right idea about that - dollar and gold strength can co-exist - it all depends on the circumstances.
@gold contract -- trotsky, 10:36:25 10/06/06 Fri
unless it reverses down again and breaks this morning's lows, then this was indeed an Ordian retest of the low. that in turn would be very bullish short term.
@gold contract -- trotsky, 10:17:24 10/06/06 Fri
an Ordian re-test of the low on lower volume? so far that's what it looks like.
@the dollar -- trotsky, 09:54:22 10/06/06 Fri
the dollar is bought in reaction to a weak employment report - this is the type of incongruence that is usually bullish. iow, it's a dollar bullish event. it's as Grandich said, 'the only party that doesn't know that the dollar is dead is the dollar'.
@gold chart -- trotsky, 09:28:19 10/06/06 Fri
we are still inside the triangle (i.e., above its lower boundary) - note in this context that a drop BELOW the lower boundary remains a distinct possibility. if such a drop happens, it must reverse almost immediately to keep a medium term bullish outlook alive. this triangle looks very similar to the 70's triangles as mentioned earlier - however, this does not mean that the ultimate outcome after it ends is a certainty. after all, the market ALSO formed a triangle after the 1980 top, and the outcome was less than benign.
@jobs report, pt.2 -- trotsky, 08:49:05 10/06/06 Fri
my guess is that the consumer recession has already begun - and that means the point in time when the yield curve reverts from inversion to steepening isn't far off.
this is bad for all sorts of financial as well as hard assets that have been favored by speculators recently, such as stocks and commodities. it tends to be good news for bonds and gold however (gold is luckily not only a commodity).
note that leading economic indicators have recently begun to slip-slide away, in spite of the stock market's strength. PMI's are one or two bad months away from entering negative territory.
@jobs report -- trotsky, 08:41:38 10/06/06 Fri
horror-show - and the housing downturn has only just begun, so get ready for far worse numbers in coming months.
note: in September, the average phantom jobs addition is about 45K, assuming they used the same number this year, we arrive at payroll growth net of phantom jobs of about 6-7000.
this is economic contraction territory. one wonders what the stock market sees? it's not the same thing that the bond market is seeing, that much is certain. one of these markets is wrong.
frustrated@oil -- trotsky, 08:36:42 10/06/06 Fri
perennial oil bear Fadel Gheit was on TV today, and assured us that 'oil is going back to $45/bbl.' - he just 'doesn't know when'.
he forgot to mention that he was bearish all the way up... |
