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Strategies & Market Trends : Synthetic Derivatives

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From: CapitalistHogg™	10/7/2006 11:23:36 AM
	of 464

OSIP on BETM watchlist. (watchlist is one step below radar) IV/HV % is 254.23 is high enough to qualify for BETM, however, the IV/HV scaled range is only 0.52. There is a lot of recent option activity in the front months, enough to peek my interest and a recent article about a potential takeover. Very interesting. today.reuters.com At first glance of the option activity I would say this looks positive. My first question is what would be a fair value for this company if it is bought out? Second question is how much of the run up in stock price is due to valuation? Third question is how much would price fall if rumor is true and takeover does not happen? OSIP was my first MAJOR score with BETM. I had averaged in 800 shares with a stock price around 35 dollars (unfortunately I did not report to the board my last 300 shares, but I had them). On 4/26/04 the Tarceva study came in positive and the stock gapped 110% overnight. I sold all of my shares within the next couple of days.

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