Nuclear insanity rocks our world
The Daily Telegraph
October 10, 2006 12:00
THE seismic shudder detected by scientists yesterday was caused not be any any major shift in plate tectonics, no continental collision, so we need not fear any tsunami-driven devastation, and aftershocks are unlikely.
But that is the extent of the good news. For the shock was caused not by an earthquake but by the underground test of a nuclear device - a bomb, in plain language - about 400km to the northeast of the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
So while we are safe at present from the possibility of natural devastation, the potential for a catastrophic aftermath to this act of madness by North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il must not be underestimated. Undoubtedly, the "ripple'' from yesterday's test will be felt around the globe.
What we have to hope for now is that responsible nations opposed to the spread of nuclear weapons can act collectively to minimise the risk this dangerous experiment surely entails.
That will require careful diplomacy - but on the basis of Kim's record of intransigence and indifference to world opinion, it seems likely that the toughest sanctions will be required if he is to be drawn in to line.
Unsurprisingly, the nations of northeast Asia and their allies expressed their shared dismay at this development in similar terms - as if they had been prepared in advance.
As they would have been, for Kim has been threatening to conduct such a test since as early as 2002.
And just as the words used yesterday seemed well-rehearsed, it can be expected that giants Japan and China - now entering what appears to be a phase of co-operative diplomacy since the election of new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - near neighbours South Korea, and regional leaders Indonesia, Thailand and even Russia will have well-developed responses.
Aid shipments will be cancelled, trading arrangements examined, economic and diplomatic ties reappraised.
So North Korea can expect to feel an immediate and painful local reaction.
And in a nation in which food shortages are chronic, in which basic medical supplies are desperately run down, in which raw materials for building and construction are always scarce, it is inevitable that ordinary citizens will bear the brunt of that first response.
But perhaps more significant than all of that was the tone of voice used locally and globally against the rogue state once it had been confirmed the test had in fact taken place.
The US described it as "a provocative act''.
The Chinese - notionally allied to North Korea - expressed "resolute'' opposition to the test, saying Pyongyang should return to the six-nation disarmament talks in the interests of northeast Asian stability.
In Australia, of course, the response was also forceful, with Prime Minister John Howard declaring the test had "destabilised the region''.
"A strong international response is called for and Australia will give full support to that response,'' Mr Howard said.
All those declarations should leave Kim in no doubt - his desire to possess nuclear weapons will not be tolerated.
For according to military analysts, North Korea probably has sufficient nuclear material already to manufacture between six and a dozen weapons - enough to place the entire region at risk.
So Mr Kim - beloved of his badly misled people - can expect to find himself even further isolated from the community of world nations in the immediate future.
Let's hope the concerted efforts of those countries which prefer peace above conflict, words before war, will be sufficient to quell this new threat before it matures.
But on a final note ...
The great pity is that things have come again to such a situation.
In 1989, when "people power'' resulted in the destruction of the Berlin Wall and then in the fall of communism, there was a time when it seemed the world might be headed at last into that "sunlit upland'' of peace and co-operation of which Winston Churchill had spoken during World War II.
But that optimism seems to have been misplaced.
If we are ever to reach that place, the evil ambitions of men such as Kim Jong-Il must be thwarted.
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