Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: C_Johnson who wrote (20833)	10/11/2006 1:52:12 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Still no sign of me saying that Flash Memory is going to Crash. Well I don't recall you being overly optimistic as well. It's not specific to you at all - so how good are the predictions. Guys like you make a living by providing opinions about the future - so how good are you guys really? This applies to all forecasters: perpaphs be more humble in voicing your forecast and did you ever look back and try to figure out what went wrong rather cranking out a new forecast while nobody gives a damm what you said 6 or 12 months ago? A few days ago Micron was hammered for ramp issues - two years ago you were pretty downbeat about memory in particular DRAM BUT 2 years ago Micron should have started to in increase capex for DRAM opposite to your wisdom 2 years ago... you forecasters have no accountability - that's the problem To: etchmeister who wrote (19392) 9/24/2004 9:27:51 AM From: longputter of 32914 Etchmeister, I don't mean to be a pain in the ass but what were your predictions for DRAM and flash 12 months ago. ?? Maybe you are thinking I am with Semico, maybe not. I am not with Semico and I have said nothing - at least in public, about the DRAM or the Flash business in the last few weeks. I think most people know that I view the memory business, Flash, DRAM, specialty or anything related, as a giant No-Limit Poker game. I've said this for years - probably 10 years now. If you are asking about whether or not I thought the market would be up this year I did and I also talked about a glut in the Flash market appearing in the middle of the year - that was around a year ago. Today a great proportion of the 300mm investment is going toward DRAM production so many are worried about over-supply. I am too. Next year I can see where DRAM production exceeds demand by about 5% (early in the year) to 10% (late in the year). As for revenue growth, I have not put any numbers to this but it is likely we will see pricing pressure - per usual. And, per your note, we will likely hear about yield issues given some of the technology transitions. I've seen news stories but not the details about the iSuppli forecast. I hesitate to comment on his analysis without the details in front of me. I also looked at the slides when they were published @ silicon strategies a couple weeks ago - As far as the slides I pointed to, I am pretty sure they were never archived at Silicon Strategies. If they were, they got a copy of my (INFRASTRUCTURE) material and I'd like to see a link. As far as I know my site is the only site with a copy of those Luncheon Slides. Carl

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