Analysis: Hypertension drugs soar in China
By STEVE MITCHELL
UPI Senior Medical Correspondent
WASHINGTON, Oct. 10 (UPI) -- Sales of drugs to treat hypertension in China will nearly double from the current level of $440 million to $800 million in 2010, according to projections from an analyst report released Tuesday.
Calcium channel blockers, including Pfizer's Norvasc and AstraZeneca's Plendil, will continue to remain the most prescribed hypertension medications in China.
"We're projecting market to almost double to $800 million by 2010 and that increase will be driven by an increase in the proportion of people who have hypertension rather than a real ramp up in sales," Nikhil Mehta, an analyst at Decision Resources and author of the report, told United Press International.
"There's a great potential in market because patients don't comply with their medicines very well and they're not really aware of the disease," Mehta added.
In addition, the Chinese government is paying close attention to hypertension in their long-term chronic disease prevention programs, which means more people will become aware of the condition. This coupled with China's expanding economy, which will lead to a greater disposable income, "will really drive sales," Mehta said.
Calcium channel blockers will generate sales of $300 million in 2010, led by Pfizer's Norvasc, AstraZeneca's Plendil and Bayer's Adalat, with their popularity driven by physicians' preference.
"The physicians prefer this class because of the quick response of blood pressure-lowering they deliver," Mehta said.
Norvasc will continue to be the top seller for this field in China in 2010. "We don't foresee a major shift in who's leading the market," Mehta said.
There will be a very slight shift in use towards ACE inhibitors and beta-blockers because physicians will increasingly prescribe more in line with evidence-based medicine, he said.
The winners in these classes will be Novartis' ACE inhibitor Lotensin and AstraZeneca's beta-blocker Betaloc.
ACE inhibitors will generate sales of $200 million in 2010, the report predicted. Beta-blockers and diuretics will be used routinely, but due to their cheaper price, their sales figures will remain low.
Angiotensin 2 receptor antagonists will generate sales of approximately $170 million, the report said.
While Pfizer's Norvasc will do well in the Chinese market, the company is struggling to keep its patent on Lipitor. A recent ruling by the appeals court for the Federal Circuit upheld one patent, but overturned another on the statin.
The ruling "effectively shaves about a year off the terminal life of Lipitor," stated Prudential analyst Tim Anderson, noting that the patent would have carried through June, 2011.
"From here, (Pfizer) doesn't really have any realistic recourse," Anderson stated in a research report. "Instead, the company will likely have to rely that much more on pipeline drug torcetrapib." Pfizer is developing torcetrapib, an HDL-, or "good" cholesterol-raising agent as a combination pill with Lipitor.
Novartis will do well in the Chinese market with Lotensin and the company's recent second quarter results gave analysts reason to be optimistic about the company's future.
Novartis missed Wall Street's expectations, but Prudential's Anderson attributed that to expenses associated with the acquisition of Chiron.
"Excluding Chiron, the underlying business grew robustly with double digit growth of most key products, and margins expanded," he stated.
Anderson lowered his earnings per share estimate for both 2006 and 2007, but was still positive about the company's prospects.
Novartis "continues to have a very healthy comparative outlook," he stated. "Late in the year will be the catalyst of a significant new drug approval (Galvus, a DPP-4 inhibitor, for diabetes)," he added.
Chris Schott, an analyst with Banc of America, was similarly optimistic about Novartis.
Schott rated the stock a "buy" due to the company's limited near-term exposure to patents and its impressive late-stage pipeline. He said he anticipates the company will generate 9 percent revenue growth for the next five years. |
