"And so much for the consumer-led recession. Look at retail sales - UFB. I guess I missed some source of funding for this. Where is the money coming from?
I hate being wrong. Is it ego? No, not really. It's just that every time I'm wrong, it costs me money. And I've been wrong a lot more than right lately. There just seems to be no consequences from the dominoes that fall yet.
Am I bitter? Just a tad. I'm sick and tired of watching PigMen playing with Other People's Money, with risk-free no-lose propositions: make 20% of any profits, but don't participate in any losses. It's a system designed to fail. The only thing more foolish is the fact that I didn't rush out and start my own hedge fund.
So I ask you - how can I quit being wrong? Is there any better way to figure out if the economy is weakening for real? I can complain ad nauseam about the ridiculous prices on many stocks, and the implausible scenarios that must be assumed to make them a rational investment, but for all that the simple fact remains: I've been wrong about the economy, corporate profits, and consumer spending for so long now that I can't remember what it feels like to be right. If I could just get a better grasp on those, I wouldn't lose so much darned money. Heck, I might even make a buck here or there like I used to in the good ol' days...
Sorry for the rant. If you haven't guessed, I've been forced to throw in the towel on a whole bunch of positions in recent days. I'm just stunned that we somehow seem to be avoiding recession even a full year following the housing peak."
Good summary, I have had the same feelings over the last few years....so far I have done OK by reducing exposure to things that weren't working (shorts) and holding my positions on those things that were working (gold)..but who knows, that situation might flip-flop in a minute....best recommendation: keep the day job, the stock market is very difficult, not so bad as long as you have a good paycheck, I wouldn't want to try to make a living off the market,tho, too hard to predict...Didn't Jay Chen go to cash back in august...nice, warm, safe cash as he puts it...
Robin |
