401K - stocks, etc. status update
Executive Summary: After donating a few quid to the Gods of DESC and SGT,L, they are, for the moment, both showing good signs of life. DESC appeared to put in a double bottom around $3 and SGT.L is up big today for some reason. In terms of the 401k, we are onto new highs and I am getting more and more tempted to short the indexes, but the question is do the bulls make a run for 12k first. My thought is that they might, but I also feel very comfortable that shorting the mkt here around 11,850 would also prove to be a good trade in the future. The other trade I have been stalking is good ol' pyxx. Huge insider purchases over the last two months.
Responding ToMessage #258 from Rutgers at 9/20/2006 5:49:01 PM
Holding firm, although not unexpected, after initially heading south, they have since reversed course and are indeed lunging towards the May highs. Double top or on to new highs? Price of oil and commodities have fallen, interest rates are stable, less war in the ME - what's not to like, right? Well, I have seen this movie before so, if we break out to new highs here, you'll be breaking out w/o me. As of right now, if the Dow takes out 11/7, I've already got my put-of-choice lined up for the trading acc't.
Responding ToMessage #257 from Rutgers at 9/4/2006 4:45:52 PM
401 K update - - made a new move before last Friday's close
note to self - made this move via WiFi
DOW closed at ~ 11,464 on Friday. Since we are now in Sept., I want to be out of long funds for the historically weakest month of each year. Fortunately, I got lucky and we had the proverbial mutual-fund- first-day-of-the-month with a real nice runup. Even though I think the DOW could still try to make (or break) a double top from the spring high, I will take the scalp here for almost 250 points that the DOW is up since the last transaction and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. I am now back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #255 from Rutgers at 8/4/2006 2:21:34 PM
401 K update - foiled again! After seeing the ramp-up this AM, I decided I would put my orders in later this afternoon for an EOD move *if* the mkt cooperated, which I thought had a good chance of dumping...and, of course, I return a few hours later to see the rally go the other way. Damn, the mkt is a mischievous mistress, as my old pal Slocum was found of saying. If I was brighter, I should have thought about shorting the QQQs given my gut feeling that this was not gonna last...
Responding ToMessage #243 from Rutgers at 5/17/2006 4:37:28 PM
401 K update - made a new move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,206 this afternoon. Much to my chagrin, I indeed made a premature move despite my rather eerily accurate prediction for the Dow. Now, at the time of my last post on this subject, I was expecting an early May swoon. However, it went the other way.
Since the Dow was sitting around 11,700 only last week, I see this large move down as going too far too fast. Thus, I went back into equities before EOD. Recall, I am bound to EOD trades only in the 401k. This is a little dangerous b/c the momentum is all-down right now (trend is your friend), so I am only looking for a little reprieve via a snap-back bounce. Once again...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #223 from Rutgers at 4/5/2006 4:24:28 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,239 this afternoon. So, since we are in April and I want to be out of long funds before tax day, I got out before EOD. Even though I think the DOW could still bust out to the 11,700 range, I will take the scalp here for the 130 points that the DOW is up since last Friday (up every day so far in this new Quarter) and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. Now, I am back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #218 from Rutgers at 3/31/2006 4:22:40 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,109 this afternoon. This was not antipicated when I went got out of all long funds two weeks ago. But, with the Dow down more than 100 pts since then (and, btw, I did fail to call the top, but I wasn't really trying to call the top inasmuch as I am restricted to EOD calls...besides I am still ahead by catching it on this side of the trade).
I went back long at EOD primarily for two reasons: first, studies have shown that the first trading day of each month is historically strong due to in-flows and second, mkt held up much better than I expected during the last two weeks...so maybe we can get a bounce back up next week. Don't misunderstand, I am of the school of thought that believes in the four-year cycle lows and when combined with the absence of a 10% move down in close to three years...I gotta believe that 10% move to the downside is likely before the end of October...
so...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #202 from Rutgers at 3/15/2006 4:36:37 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at 11,210 this afternoon. The last move - go to primarily all long - was made on Dec. 9th when the DOW closed at 10,778. So, this move was good for more than 400 pts on the Upside. I think it is time to protect profits inasmuch as 16 of the last 19 weeks after March exp. have been down weeks...I truly hope that the DOW's run continues b/c I want to unwind a few long positions and perhaps short the S&P if it does go higher before end of this week.
Responding To Message #134 from Rutgers at 12/9/2005 4:25:43 PM
401 K update - made a move
DOw closed at 10,778 this afternoon. On Nov. 29th, I made my last move when the DOw closed at 10,888. Since the odds (76% historical ave.) favor next week as an up week ala Santa Rally, I moved the funds long again from ~cash. So, one to look at this move is that I have pocketed more than 100 pts, but my goal was to capture a bigger move. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks.
Responding To Message #130 from Rutgers at 11/29/2005 4:49:57 PM
Since some readings are saying that the mkt hasn't been this frothy in a bullish way since 2001, I figure it may be time for a sizable pull back. My 401 K trades, as most of you know, are tied to extreme overbought/oversold conditions. So far, this system has worked pretty well although there could be improvements. Anyway, based upon this data, I moved a nice portion from MidCap to SA fund. Now, ideally, I would love to see a 2 or 300 pt pullback w/i next week. Then, I would turnaround and reverse course, but we'll have to see how this plays out for now. If she d/n pullback here, and moves on to Dow 11K, then I will likely move the rest of the equities to bonds or stable assets.
Responding To Message #69 from Rutgers at 6/24/2005 4:20:21 PM
401 k - made yet another new move at EOD
With the Dow closing just under 10,300, I moved another slug from SA fund to the FA Fund.
I have one more big slug I could move, but I prefer to put on my rally cap at this point. |
