This is a good essay in spite of the fact that it was posted at WND.
Is global warming debate really 'over'?
Posted: October 11, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern
By Michael J. Shaughnessy Jr.
Michael J. Shaughnessy Jr. is an adjunct professor of Biology at the University of Central Oklahoma.
Over the past week, activists, scientists and politicians have taken to the airwaves to declare the debate on global warming over. The established position is that global warming is clearly occurring and it is also clearly caused by human activities. But what does it really mean for a scientific debate to be "over." Scientifically, what this means is that all available data (or very nearly all available data) relating to the subject of the debate have been collected, analyzed and interpreted, the result of which yields one single, inescapable conclusion. Some other scientific ideas for which the debate is "over" include: gravity (at least the physical phenomenon on planet Earth), the Laws of Thermodynamics (again, at least here on Earth) and the Ideal Gas Law (PV=nRT). Add to this list Human-caused Global Warming!
In truth, scientific ideas must pass through three levels of certainty before they are accepted as scientific truths. The first and least certain level is the hypothesis. A hypothesis is merely the formal statement of an idea – for instance, "Sunlight causes plants to grow." To test this hypothesis, a scientist would conduct an experiment that controls all other variables (water, minerals, etc.) and subjects plants to varying amounts of light. The scientist would then measure and analyze the growth rates of the plants receiving different amounts of light. From this conclusions are drawn. If differences in growth are detected, the scientist can then conclude that sunlight influences growth. However, one thing that is frequently lost on the non-science public is that these experiments must be repeated, many times, in order to verify results. It is possible in any experiment that the scientists' results occurred because of some error, mistake in experimental design or merely by chance. As a result, experiments are supposed to be repeated to verify the results and interpretations.
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Ideas subjected to this type of repeated experimentation that are continually supported by the data and evidence graduate to the next highest level of certainty in science, the theory. Some current scientific theories include: Evolution, Relativity and until recently, Global Warming. Theories are scientific ideas for which all data collected to date support the idea as truth. This is not to say that some piece of data won't someday be discovered that refutes the theory. It is merely an expression of increased confidence in the validity of the idea by the scientific community.
This brings us to the newly minted Law of Global Warming. Laws are merely theories that have been supported so continuously over time that their validity is no longer questioned. Again, this is not to say that some piece of data won't someday emerge that refutes the law, it is simply the scientific community's highest expression of confidence in a tested idea. The debate is "over" for most established scientific laws.
The declaration that the debate on global warming is over by activists, politicians and liberal scientists is indicative more of their contempt of the public than it is a result of vigorous scientific examination. Global warming proponents rely upon the publics' lack of scientific training and experience to force their agendas into the political arena and then establish their acceptance. When confronted with the reality that there are scientists still in the scientific community who 1) are not convinced that global warming is occurring for a variety of valid reasons and 2) are not convinced that humans have anything to do with global warming if it is occurring, the agenda-driven dismiss these dissenters by asserting that they are so few in number their objections are meaningless.
In the 1500s, the debate was also "over" concerning the position of the Earth in the heavens. Almost every scientist, school and government accepted as fact that the celestial bodies (the Sun in particular) revolved around the Earth. There existed only one notable dissenter at the time, Copernicus. It took more than 100 years before the debate was reopened, the political results of which forced Galileo to recant his support of the theory in 1616, before finally publishing his studies in support of the theory in 1632. Such is the danger of declaring any scientific debate "over."
For honest, truth-seeking scientists, vigorous debate over scientific ideas is never really over. Scientists are supposed to seek truth first, as indicated by the scientific data collected. The pursuit of truth and data is never supposed to end for the scientist. The declaration that the global warming debate is over says more about global warming proponents' agenda than it does about the science of global warming. What are the proponents of the theory afraid that honest science is going to find out about global warming? Why are they reluctant to let the scientific dissenters voice their opinion? And perhaps most importantly, why are they determined to prevent an honest public discourse that permits non-scientists to formulate their own opinions regarding the theory?
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