Excerpt from that book I keep droning on about:
"We believe there are several strong reasons why a very serious uranium shortage could materialize between now and 2020. Some believe the uranium inventory shortage may not begin until 2015; others believe uranium shortages might not occur until after the middle of this century. Below are our conclusions about the timing of the uranium shortage:
1. China could suffer through a very severe energy crisis by not later than 2010. They have begun hoarding commodities and may increase their accumulation of any and all potential energy sources for the rest of this decade.
2. India has been denied deals at nearly every turn. In order to maintain its strong GDP growth, the country may more aggressively follow China's lead by accumulating raw commodities at a similar pace to China.
3. Russia's economic revival will more rapidly accelerate for the rest of this decade. The country’s autocratic president has been contracting for uranium through 2020, and has announced plans to make hs country into an all-purpose uranium center for the entire nuclear fuel cycle.
4. Economic and political turmoil in Kazakhstan – a country which has been billed as the ‘next Australia’ with regards to uranium production and known reserves – will further impede the country’s uranium production. Many are counting upon Kazakhs to relieve the global pricing pressure on uranium, but we believe this country could fall short.
5. Two-thirds of nuclear energy capacity can be found in five countries: United States, France, Japan, Russia and Germany. More than two dozen countries have announced intentions to build or expand a civilian nuclear energy program. After several move forward into the planning and construction stages, others will follow.
6. Because of global warming (or heating) and abrupt climate change, a severe shortage of fresh water will impact many countries. We believe Middle Eastern and North African nations will turn to nuclear as a method to desalinate seawater and help prevent social chaos. Others may be forced to desalinate seawater to provide fresh water for agriculture, industry and human consumption.
7. The combination of abrupt climate change, economic and political turmoil caused by the global energy crisis and the continuous GDP growth in Asia will attract more proponents to nuclear energy. The nuclear renaissance will quickly spread to keep pace with the growing demand for electricity and the intolerance for continued environmental pollution through dirty fuels, such as coal. Environmentalists will become increasingly pro-nuclear. This will reduce the amount of times it takes to permit a nuclear facility.
8. Uranium mining is a long process. It takes about twenty years from discovery to actual production. It has been about twenty years since the last discovery of a uranium mine. While there is a surplus of U.S. Government AMU (already mined uranium), we do not believe these government-held inventories will be readily or completely released for civilian nuclear energy. US utilities have ote yet begun to aggressively compete for new uranium production at the level of other countries. But there are signs of a ‘quiet nervousness’ in obtaining sufficient uranium inventory. In early 2006, two U.S. utilities contracted with Paladin Resources to buy uranium from the company’s Namibian uranium mine, which has not yet commenced production (as of August 2006). While several U.S. uranium development companies (see Chapter 9, Section A) have held discussions with U.S. and other utilities about selling their not-yet-mined uranium, we disvoered at least one uranium development company has been in negotiations to sell its not-yet-mined uranium. The company has note yet permitted its uranium project!
9. New developments of nuclear reactors, which have enhanced safety features, will provide the safeguards to prevent future reactor accidents or terrorist acts. Some of the Advanced Generation Three designs are being marketed for use before 2020. Others, such as the Pebble Bed Module Reactor, may be available before the end of this decade, and widely used before 2015. This subject is covered in Chapter 7.
10. The uranium mining shortage is part of a much-greater problem within the commodities marketplace. New mining operations failed to quickly come onstream, and the industry lost many experienced workers. Raw materials have not been produced fast enough to accommodate global growth.
Our research indicates the current bull market is going to last longer and become far more powerful than nearly any of the experts have presently calculated. ”
From “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market” |
