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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: allevett who wrote (73281)	10/13/2006 5:41:27 PM
From: ridingycurve	Read Replies (2) of 206181

Well, here's a different take. I'm not endorsing it, but FWIW..... Investor Village CWEI Board Message: 16539 of 16578 posted 10/13/2006 2:47:05 PM Author: johnnyironboard Subject: JIB is crude at a bottom? No not even close. A good bro called me and asked me that- that was my answer. He then asked: why? I answered: because I said so that wasn't good enough so I said the following: Major trends end when 1 or 2 or both occur: Exteme valuation and extreme sentiment. I told him when oil bottomed in 11/01 at $16.70 that both happened(which was probably why this bull run was so good). Oil was cheap and everybody was afraid that travel would just stop and people would sit at home in fear of islamic murderers. After a nearly 5 year bull market that saw a price increase of over 4.5 fold we were once again at an extreme in valuation and sentiment. A major trend change does not end after a few months and a 25% drop in prices. The oil bottom will occur when we have extreme undervaluation and extreme pessimissm. Remember early 1999? (I do) the bottom came when everyone was proclaiming that we were going to see 12 to 15 oil for the next 3 to 5 years. I was at the oil and gas clearing house the other day- Sampson resources didn't accept bids for fields from companies running $85 oil and offering 4 years cash flow based on that- that is whack. www1.investorvillage.com

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