<<Do they really think that Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would allow NK to go nuclear without having a competing nuclear program of their own?>>
The answer is "yes", and I believe the thinking may be that ...
... Japan will not go nuclear at all, because it has no strategic depth for a showdown (95% of industrial capacity is concentrated within 2 fireballs' circumference) that can only be against Russia, China, N.Korea and perhaps even S.Korea, and it can be blockaded into submission. It is a mistake to believe Japanese militarism will be tolerated for a second time by its favorite neighbors without effective and concerted challenge on Day #0. Missile defense of Japan is impossible, because the flight to target from all directions is all within 5 minutes from the word go, meaning any conflict is over before it starts.
... S.Korea will not go nuclear lightly, because it knows it cannot use nuke in a civil conflict with northern cousins.
... Taiwan cannot go nuclear at all, because it will never reach that point without having been regime-changed first, as the society is infiltrated from top to bottom and left to right, and a palace coup is a go within 30 minutes of "go".
Chugs, J |
