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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Rarebird who wrote (72029)	10/14/2006 8:21:24 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) of 110194

marketwatch.com This story caught my attention for a few reasons: 1. it sounded like they got the story from NAHB. Based on the article, should we assume that next Tuesday's HMI release is not going to show any change in trends? nahb.org 2. we already know the new home sales data is grossly over stated since they do not take into account the current high rate of cancellations. Now I doubt if the census bureau has any ability to adjust the price based on cash incentives, financing rebates and other non cash discounts. census.gov If we only take the largest and diversified builder, DHI, and use that as the sample for new home sales, it may actually be statistically more valid than our government's numbers. DHI reported 9.8% decline in average price on their net orders, before incentives. I would say that new home prices have already easily dropped over 10% yoy.

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