To Morgan Stanley Analysts;
Hopefully you read these pages, I know many other analysts do.
Perhaps you would like to respond after reading this post. Drew Peck commented on SI once regarding Xlnx after people had criticized his downgrade.
I feel you downgraded Cymer for the following reasons;
1. You are worried about this Q. not matching previous blowouts. Those concerns were started when Cymer did not attend the recent conference, and the subsequent aftermath of rumors ( pushouts, cancellations, quartz problems, etc. etc. ).
2. You did not want to go into Cymer's earnings date with a Buy / Strong Buy, due to the above reason.
3. You took the path of least resistance by downgrading. Thereby leaving room for minimal / strong / or no recommendations post earnings.
4. You could not use the Montgomery reasons for fear of losing credibility ( waiting too long after Monty ). Plus Cymer had already responded to those rumors during the CC, and disputed Monty's claims.
5. So you searched for the reason to put yourself on the side until you could garner more info after earnings.
6. You spoke to Mr. Angus yesterday, and from what investors here are saying, you did not get any negative guidance. So you couldn't use that.
7. You searched your files of the CC, and viola, you found the reason, Cymer is going to have trouble getting fused silica.
What will you do when Cymer is able to speak freely and disputes most if not all these rumors. Will Cymer become an outperform first, so you don't look foolish ?
Suggested reading for you and your firm, should be the pages of SI, especially this thread with some of the excellent engineering minds that frequent it. See how they feel about Cymer's future. Possibly then you will understand Cymer better, or, are they and all the investors here wrong and you are right, and Cymer is doomed.
Good Luck to You, I hope if and when you are proven wrong, your firm will be hard pressed getting the next best IPO, a Bre-x or Sexi.
Tom |
