Expert: U.S. West becoming warmer faster Fri Oct 13, 5:08 PM ET
(Why do you think they call them "Okies?")
DURANGO, Colo. - The American West is becoming warmer faster on average than the rest of the world, a climate researcher says.
"The West is warming dramatically," said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona. "Things are just going to get hotter. You can bet the farm on it."
The West is 2 to 3 degrees warmer than its average annual temperature, calculated using more than 100 years of records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many studies peg the rise in the earth's average temperature since 1880 at 1 degree, making it the warmest it has been in the last 400 years.
At a conference Thursday, Overpeck said data from some 30 computer-modeling studies shows that by mid-century annual average temperatures in the West will be up 4 or 5 degrees. By the end of the century, the West could be 7 to 8 degrees warmer, he said.
"Things are cooking in the West, and they'll continue to cook even more," Overpeck said.
Climate systems are not completely understood, but research suggests an especially warm Indian Ocean region appears to be causing the West's warming.
The Indian Ocean drives many of the weather patterns that make their way to the American West, University of Colorado climate scientist Klaus Wolter said. Still, he said scientists have not found a smoking gun when it comes to warming.
"The Indian Ocean is (one) of the key ingredients when I make seasonal forecasts," Wolter said. "(We) shouldn't get panicky that there's runaway warming right now."
A 2005 report in the journal Science said higher temperatures could cause serious long-term drought over western North America. A report in the Nature said Western stream flows could be drop as much as 20 percent by 2050.
"One place precipitation likely won't go up ... is southern Colorado and the Southwest," Overpeck said. "We're going to have drier average conditions — then cycles of drought will come on top of that. Droughts will be more extreme. It's going to be severe in our lifetimes."
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