Dear Jspeed:
JO is full of it. Intel has lousy integrated graphics. The performance just isn't there to play any kind of games. Ok, maybe turn based strategy. To remove discrete graphics in the mainstream, you need to get 50-75% of the high end average performance in the integrated realm. That will likely require about an on die memory cache equal to 4 frames of display at the highest resolution. One holding the frame being sent to the monitor, one being drawn, one holding the depth and the other one to hold texel lists, vertex lists, textures, bump mapping, lighting, etc in the cache.
Given a high end display of 2Kx1.5K at 32 bit per pixel with 32 bit depth, thats 12MB per frame or 48MB of on die RAM. HDTV at 1920x1080 at 32bit, could reduce that to 32MB. 32MB on die is not likely until 32nm, although ZRAM might allow it to be on early 45nm. Given that 32nm isn't until 2009, it is likely that discrete graphics will not reduce significantly before then.
Now that does not say that a GPU couldn't migrate on to the CPU die before then, but that is likely to be for value line CPUs where integrated graphics are fine and resolutions are 1024x768x24 or 1280x800x32. Here frame rates can be in the 24-30 range at medium quality. HDTV video will need to be 60fps, but that is less demanding. 2 channel DDR2 or DDR3 will be more than enough for these value line tasks. This will be for things like value laptops, set top boxes, A/V equipment, auto navigation, etc.
That is how it will likely go. As the one die integrated graphics becomes faster and more capable, then and only then will discrete begin to die off. We are very far away from sufficient power to do the ultimate virtual reality simulations. Where its hard to tell that you are not looking through the eyes of a real person in a real environment. Until we can do that with integrated graphics, discrete will always be there.
Pete |
