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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer
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To: Icebrg who wrote (1712)10/17/2006 11:36:36 AM
From: Ward Knutson  Read Replies (1) of 1826
 
ML this morning:

MGI Pharma: Market Overly Negative on Generic Zofran Impact; Key Catalysts Coming
We believe the market is overly negative regarding the impact that generic Zofran will have on Aloxi sales. While we expect Aloxi sales to decline in 4Q06 and 1Q07, we believe that sales will begin to rebound in 2Q07, which is at least one quarter earlier than anticipated. Also, we expect Dacogen to beat estimates and anticipate multiple catalysts by year-end, which should allow the stock to perform well.

Aloxi Use Should Rise in 2Q07:
With private pay representing 60% of potential Aloxi sales, we believe doctor profits as a blended mix of private pay & Medicare will rebound in 2Q07, which should shift share back to Aloxi. We believe the market is neglecting to recognize that doctor profitability from using Aloxi in private pay patients is much greater than in Medicare patients, and with usage rebounding at least two quarters earlier.

Dacogen Should Beat Estimates:
We believe that Dacogen for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) could beat estimates beginning in 3Q06, which we project at $11 MM. We expect Dacogen to achieve peak sales of $200 MM by 2010.

Key Near-Term Catalysts:
We expect phase III data for Aloxi in post-operative nausea and vomiting (PONV)in the next few weeks and anticipate phase III data for Aquavan in bronchoscopy by YE06.
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