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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: orkrious who wrote (72195)10/17/2006 1:43:20 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
There is very little evidence of any slowdown in the economy other than housing.

Retail sales are very strong. Credit growth is very strong. Unemployment claims are near cycle lows. Capacity utilization is near cycle highs.

Stock market gains and lower gas prices have caused consumer confidence to soar. There is every indication that the Christmas shopping season will be very strong.

Our economy looks very much like the New Zealand and Australia experience so far. Housing slowed markedly but consumer spending and job growth remain very robust.

I'm very bearish as I think the economy teeters on consumer confidence and willingness to gorge on debt. Once consumers begin to pull in the reins, the economy can unravel quite quickly.

So far, there is no evidence that the consumer is even thinking about pulling back.
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