The Value Line Survey currently contains exactly 100 different industry listings, composed of listed stocks within those categories.
The Value Line Timeliness Ranking (as well as the Value Line Safety Ranking) are proprietary components of the Value Line Investment Survey. Both rankings apply only to the 1700 individual stocks where Value Line provides proprietary analyst coverage.
Industries do not receive either timeliness or safety rankings. And rightly so. Within any given industry, not all companies are created equal. Therefore, not all company stocks are created equal. These inequalities make it impractical, nay impossible, to rank any given industry as "safe" or "timely".
Besides that, neither ranking is a predictor of any given stock being bullish or bearish. The ranking is where the stock ranks relative to the ranking of the other 1700 stocks in the survey. What that means (among other things) is that a given stock that is ranked higher than another stock is "expected" to perform better (on the long side) than the lower ranked stock. Since the rankings tend to persist for quite a long period of time (say as little as one quarter to as long as a few years), the timeliness ranking is not a prediction that the stock will rise in price. In a bear market, it may be a predictor that the stock will decline less than other stocks. Maybe not. Everything is relative to the 1700 stocks within the survey.
By design, 100 stocks will receive the top ranking of "1". Another 100 stocks will receive the next highest ranking of "2". The worst 100 stocks get a timeliness ranking of "5", and the next worst group is ranked "4". That leaves 1300 stocks that are not ranked "1", "2", "4" or "5". So, by definition, the remaining 1300 stocks default to a ranking of "3". Stocks move up or down in ranking over time depending upon such factors as their revenues & earnings as well as their guidance. However, a company can do really, really well and not have a ranking of "1" if 100 other companies in the survey do just as well (or better) and receive the "1" ranking. So, while doing well is important, it's just as important (if not more so) as to how well the other companies in the survey perform.
Historically speaking, stocks ranked "1" and "2" have outperformed the market in general (over time). Stocks ranked "4" and "5" have underperformed the market (over time). For specific results and tracking, you can consult Hulbert's Financial Digest and/or the Value Line website.
EK!!! |