Whoa Jay, sounds like an island off Thailand isn't so
appealing if that nuclear arming comes to pass! Back to Trinidad! I haven't made it that far down in the Caribbean yet; all good spots in time.
Conceding your superior knowledge of the region and the players, I still think you're a bit pessimistic about Japan's rationality here:
japan will not attack n.korea first without also attacking china and s.korea, since a fight with n.korea would otherwise leave other near-and-far-neighbors the winners most definitely, and so it would not happen unless n.korea attacked japan first, in which n.korea loses for sure and japan loses for certain
Only the dumbest of the dumb among Japanese leaders would launch on China if they felt they had to launch on NK. I don't see why you think they'd do that. They might get all of NK's sites, and even if not NK could still have launch, flight or warhead failure. There's precedent! I see the Japanese as much smarter than that.
"Winner" is a relative term here. Even if NK nailed most of Japan, I can't see Japan launching on China. Even if the genocidal nature of an unprovoked nuclear attack were not an issue for them, Japan still wouldn't attack China. Better to be left partly or mostly pre-industrial (after trading nukes with NK) than entirely vaporized (if they launched on China). I agree the U.S. has the most potential adverse change in relationship if Japan goes nuclear, although they'd still need us until they got good missile subs and rockets.
It's a dangerous world and getting worse all the time. Your previously expressed thoughts (haven't read you lately) of going somewhere isolated, near the water, is a nice idea until you think about the first nuke that misses and detonates in the ocean. Waves, anyone? No doubt the Pentagon has war-gamed this and knows exactly how high up a mountain in the Caribbean or S. American coast I'd need to be to just catch some spray from the off-target nuke, but are they telling me what they figured out using my tax dollars? No!! Then there's this nasty habit of Caribbean and C./S. American mountains turning into volcanoes--which would happen to me only after I bought/built. Hard to find a refuge!
Little Coco is very cute; reminds me of when my girl was so young. |
