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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Sdgla who wrote (183266)10/19/2006 8:28:45 AM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (1) of 793953
 
Ah, a fellow waver... nice to meet you ;)

There is an old Elliottian observation that when the markets and the economy are strong, the political party in charge tends to do well during elections. When the markets bottomed in the summer of 2004 and rallied into the elections, I was quite confident that Bush would probably win.

This time seems to be different - the markets are making new highs, but the Republicans are not doing well. It's very strange how much weight was given to the story of one Congressional screwball flirting with a page - it was almost as if the public was waiting for an excuse to turn against the Republicans.

This graphic shows it well. The odds for Reps to keep both Houses came down from over 60% all the way to about 30% - in the course of one month. That's some mood swing!

iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu
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