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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (306924)10/19/2006 9:52:59 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) of 1576988
 
Three Weeks is a Long Time John McIntyre
Wed Oct 18, 11:14 AM ET


Three weeks can be a lifetime in today's new media world, especially in a mid-term election like this one. At the very beginning of August, the RCP Generic Average in the congressional ballot gave the Democrats a solid double-digit edge in the 12%-14% range. Three weeks later on Aug 21st the RCP Average stood at Dems +5.6%. This was followed by a pullback toward the Dems before another surge by the GOP around the 9/11 anniversary and the White House's intense focus on terrorism related issues. Democrats were enjoying another pullback toward a 10-point lead when the Foley Scandal broke on September 29. In the almost three weeks since, Republicans have seen their momentum destroyed and have been utterly pushed back on their heels across the board.

In the last few days we have seen an increasing number of dramatic predictions of massive Democratic gains in November. National Journal's Charlie Cook is talking about a "once or twice in a generation election" like 1994 and 1974 where the incumbent party lost 52 and 49 seats. And Jim VandeHei writes in today's Washington Post:

Democrats said private polls have convinced top party officials that they could pick up 40 or more seats -- nearly double their internal projections from a week ago.....

So Cook and VandeHei are pumping the Democratic blowout line today, which is fine. But I don't know how much that tells us about what the playing field is going to look like in 19 days on November 6. Is it possible that 2006 is another 1994 or 1972 or 1932? Sure, it's possible. Is it likely? Well, that is another story.

Three weeks is a long time. The former trader in me asks: "at what point is the bad news priced in for the GOP?" And where is the Democratic wave talk going to go next? Are we going to see stories in a couple of weeks playing up Democratic prospects of winning 60-70 seats? Or is it more likely we will get a swing back to the GOP and see the inevitable stories wondering "Did the Democrats Peak Too Soon?"

My money would be on the latter. And if that is the case, what does that do to the analysis of where these extremely close races are really going to break?

While I won't discount the wheels totally falling off the GOP bus, and I acknowledge the possibility that Republicans could lose 30 - 40 seats, the evidence I see today ranks that as a lower probability than the GOP holding both Houses. In other words, Republicans have a better chance of retaining control of Congress than they do of losing the Senate and 40+ House seats. That may not be the conventional wisdom bantered about at the moment, but as I said, three weeks is a very long time.
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