British wildlife head north as planet warms by Elodie Mazein
Fri Oct 20, 5:33 AM ET
LONDON (AFP) - Biologists have discerned a mass migration of fauna over the past 25 years as animals try to outrun global warming by heading for cooler climes in the north.
Studies by the University of York have shown that 80 percent of some 300 monitored species are on the move, abandoning areas they have inhabited for millennia and heading 70 to 100 kilometres (40 to 60 miles) north.
"Our sample is large enough to be sure about the pattern of change," said Chris Thomas, professor of conservation biology at the university.
"Eighty percent is a surprisingly large percentage ... It's amazing how strong and already visible is the signature of climate change."
Animals studied by the university included insects, mammals, vertebrates and invertebrates. Seventy percent of the species found to be on the move were heading to higher ground, up to 150 metres (495 feet) above their normal habitats.
Some scientists predict that average temperatures in Britain will increase by 3.5 degrees Celsius (38.3 degrees Fahrenheit) between now and 2080. Over the past century they have climbed just 0.6 degrees, but the 1990s was the hottest decade on records going back some 400 years.
"Average global temperatures in 2100 will probably be higher than for at least two, and quite probably 10 million or more years," Shaw said.
"The average lifetime of species is mainly between one and 10 million years. Thus, approximately 10 to 99 percent of species will experience global average conditions that they have not encountered previously.
"About 10 to 15 percent of land species seem to be at risk of eventual extinction from climate change."
London's Kew Gardens are an unlikely setting for wildlife discoveries but even here scientists have found depressing signs of a planet in flux, in the form of hairy, stinging caterpillars which normally live in southern Europe.
Britain's butterflies are also sending out warning signals. From 1970 to 1982 the number of new species of butterflies found in Britain was only about a third of what had been expected, meaning less biodiversity.
"Climate change is expected to reduce the number of species globally," the Royal Society, Britain's national academy of science, said recently.
Scientists are now asking how, years from now, species from the south are going to interact with those from the north as they increasingly start to compete for food and habitats.
"We think that the southern species, already adapted to a warmer climate and which have in general two breeds in a year, are going to win," said Thomas.
"Evolution of the northern species will take place but not fast enough to stop ... some species going extinct."
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