Poll shows gas reserves tax losing -
RESULTS: Survey also shows Young leading Benson; session limit passing.
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By KYLE HOPKINS
Anchorage Daily News
Published: October 20, 2006
Last Modified: October 20, 2006 at 03:12 AM
A new statewide poll shows the effort to launch a $1 billion a year reserves tax on natural gas is losing favor, though almost a third of voters still don't know what to think about it.
The poll also showed voters choosing incumbent Republican Don Young over Democratic challenger Diane Benson by double digits in the U.S. House race, and supporting a plan to shorten the time legislators spend in Juneau during the regular session.
The poll, conducted by the Craciun Research Group and released Thursday, shows 42 percent of likely voters opposed the reserves tax and 28 percent support it. The rest were undecided. Ballot Measure 2 asks voters to approve taxing large North Slope gas reserves unless a pipeline is built to carry the gas to the Lower 48.
Opponents of the tax, including oil companies, have paid for a blizzard of commercials slamming the idea as bad for Alaskans, saying it could lead to paralyzing lawsuits and kill hopes for a gas pipeline project. Supporters say it would force construction of a pipeline sooner as the North Slope oil companies try to minimize a tax of up to $1 billion a year.
Both sides say the reserves tax was more popular at first, but that the marketing push appears to have made people question the idea.
"The advertising is working," said Jean Craciun, president of the research firm. She did the poll on her own and not for any client.
The gas reserves tax is on the Nov. 7 general election ballot. So is the state's sole U.S. House seat, which has been held by Young for more than 30 years.
According to Craciun's poll, Young was leading Benson by 16 percentage points, with about 9 percent of respondents undecided.
Young campaign manager Steven Dougherty said the campaign conducted its own poll earlier in the month and believes the lead is actually bigger. He declined to make his poll numbers public.
Dougherty said Young began running television commercials in late September and will continue advertising through the end of the campaign.
Benson plans to film her first TV commercials this weekend and to hit the airwaves right before the election, said campaign manager Kris Pierce.
Pierce said he thinks Young's lead is actually smaller and that Benson is drawing support outside her party. "It's this disillusionment with the Republican Party that's a big help for Diane."
The poll found that among moderates -- people who don't consider themselves particularly liberal or conservative -- Benson and Young were virtually tied.
Moderates are normally less likely to cast ballots than more partisan voters, but Republican governor candidate and party maverick Sarah Palin drew moderates to the Aug. 22 primary election, Craciun said.
One thing to watch is whether those moderates return for the general election, she said. "They're kind of impacting things in such new and different ways."
Craciun polled 418 likely voters by telephone around the state Oct. 7 through Oct. 15. The margin of error was about 5 percent, Craciun said.
The survey also asked how people planned to vote on Ballot Measure 1, which would reduce the length of the annual regular legislative session to 90 days. The poll found the proposal ahead by about 6 percent, but almost 28 percent of those polled were still undecided.
Ballot Measure 2 is getting most of the attention.
Anchorage Rep. Harry Crawford sponsored the reserves tax along with fellow Democrats Eric Croft and David Guttenberg. He was surprised to hear the poll results.
"There have been a couple other polls earlier on that showed that Prop 2 was leading, but they've pretty much reversed the numbers now," he said.
Crawford said reserves tax supporters are trying to raise money for their own ads, but that "it doesn't look good."
"Nobody wants to take on the oil companies."
Art Hackney, chairman of the anti-reserves-tax group Alaska First, said voters are getting a better idea of what the reserves tax would actually do, and are starting to question it.
"What I've watched is that people have been overwhelmingly in favor of it because it sounded good to them, and because they didn't understand what the implications were."
The three leading candidates for governor -- Palin, Democrat Tony Knowles and independent Andrew Halcro -- have all said they oppose the tax, which was "huge" for Ballot Measure 2 opponents, he said. |
