Darrell and All. I too am concerned about the infrastructure article, which I have read in detail, and right now, the heart of the question concerning Cymer's future seems to be (1) Is the ramp up to .25 micron chips going to continue full bore, and (2) are Cymer's lasers going to be at the heart of that ramp up. The deadly implication for Cymer in the infrastructure article is that with 4-5 other technologies in development by giants in the semi-conductor industry, chip makers will delay the ramp-up until the dominant technology emerges. If that happens, Cymer's stock becomes a "lame duck" (like me, right Curly) immediately. Furthermore, we have already seen one stepper manufacturer begin to delay receipt of Cymer's lasers.
By the way, I will now have to sell 2000 CLFY on Monday to cover the margin I'm over extended right now. At least I can do that at a profit. If Cymer tanks further, I'll have to start liquidating Cymer shares and booking huge losses.
For what its worth, I don't expect many more analysts to bail on the shares, although I could be wrong on that one. The reason is that any analyst who did so now would have to admit that Morgan Stanley got their clients out of the stock when there was substantially more money left on the table, and in that sense is the MS analyst is a better analyst. If you are an analyst and your house still has clients in Cymer, better now to bet on a rebound.
Finally, let me say that I still don't think that this predicament we're in has anything to do with a short squeeze. Wall Street loves steady earnings histories (ala shares like Coke, etc.,) but will trash
even a company like Coke if the fundamentals weaken even a little bit. Cymer's history is far too short to be meaningful, and the future is anything but sure now. In addition, we now learn that this company is dependent not only on just 4 clients, but now we know there are only two lens manufacturers. This represents maximum risk to investors.
Good luck to everyone, and have a nice weekend ;^)
Jess |
