To All, a humble competitive analysis...
I have done an informal and unscientific survey on SI to try to determine
if NN has had or will have soon any real competition for these big carrier
ATM contracts that we've been buzzing about.
I'm no technical expert on ATM, so I can't really analyze the specs of the
products mentioned below. I'm trying to focus on target markets and
identifying the presence of the appropriate buzzwords in relevent press
releases.
Here goes...
Lucent:
Product portfolio strategy similar to Newbridge
Access Concentrator 60/120 (analagous to 36150?) - avail. end of 97
Multiservice Switch 1000 (edge switch like 36170) - avail. early 98
upgraded GlobeView-2000 ATM core switch (like 36190?) - avail. mid 98
ATM Switch 500 (AX 500) (seems intended mainly for PBX backbones) - early 98
** This sounds like a Cascade switch - OEMed? I dunno...
Link: zdnet.com
Nortel:
Apparently don't have strong Carrier ATM program. Emphasized frame relay.
Link: exchange2000.com
Ascend/Cascade:
Don't have carrier-class MPOA ATM switch yet.
Cascade's biggest ATM switch is apparently mainly suited for backbone of
Frame Relay networks. The NTT announcement seems to sound like that...
Apparently planning to roll out multiservice ATM switches in early to mid
1998
Link: exchange2000.com
Cisco:
Apparently does have a high end "carrier-class" multiservice switch -
the BPX Service Node. "Designed for highest levels of reliability in
mission-critical enterprise networks and demanding service provider
environments." The propaganda still sounds oriented towards large WANs
and ISPs. I wonder if this is more comparable to the 36170 than the 36190.
I don't know how to really compare ATM specs well so don't consider me
an authority on the subject!
Link: cisco.com
Fore:
Apparently supports MPOA, but I don't believe they're into carrier class
stuff...
3COM:
May have the best carrier class ATM out there...of course that's if you
believe the rumor that they'll be selling Newbridge stuff! <g>
My analysis:
Sounds like NN won BT, MCI, Stentor, New Zealand because no one else could really ship something competitive. Perhaps Lucent and ASND could offer
vaporware, while Cisco lacks the complete carrier portfolio offered by NN?
Most shocking seems to be Nortel's lack of product...they have ATM
experience, and carrier telephony switching up with the best of them,
but it sounds like they haven't put the two together yet! Of anyone, I
expected them to be charging in there...
As for competition for future deals, Lucent seems to be the most scary.
They seem to be planning on offering everything that NN does, and indeed
their portfolio strategy sounds very similar to NN (i.e. breakdown between
access, edge and core networks). But of course, they're not shipping it
until next year...
Cisco seems to have a big switch now, but I don't really know if, say, BT
could build a national network on it. Maybe an ATM expert could explain
for me. I'll be looking into this further when I have time.
Ascend/Cascade seems to be planning stuff, but I get this disorganized
vibe from their press release. I was told that they have beat NN to the
punch with OC-12...but is MPOA the key here, in order to allow a carrier
to really put EVERYTHING on an ATM network? Also, they seem to be hanging
on to frame relay in a big way (Cascade's biggest strength I think).
Nortel could probably put together something competitive in a hurry, with
their broad expertise...but are they doing it? It doesn't sound like it...
I always put in disclaimers about my lack of expertise, and worry about
jumping to conclusions. But I have never waded in over my head as much as
I have here! For non-technical people, DO NOT TAKE THE ABOVE AS GOSPEL!!
For technical people, please accept my apologies for the things I probably
goofed! I don't even claim to have done much fact-checking - I have
relied on hearsay and press releases. That's my next step.
Really, I'm just trying to get a sense about what NN really is up against.
Is Terry Matthews over-hyping NN's product leadership? I don't think so!
Do they have enough leadership to win more of these carrier contracts?
Well...it sounds plausible. But the competition is obviously not (all)
sitting around picking their collective noses!
This is my ride.
Andrew |
