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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!
LGND 190.77-0.5%3:59 PM EST

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To: Harrison Hickman who wrote (7804)9/27/1997 12:22:00 AM
From: Andrew H   of 32384
 
Harrison, it was a good question. I didn't have a clue what it meant, either. One really needs to be involved in the business to understand the jargon, I think. I guess for accounting purposes they can only calculate what they can count. Of course once the drugs start selling they can count them.

It may well be that celery is correct, but I really can't understand why the selloff should come today rather than yesterday. I see no reason that the actual filing should precipitate the decline. Even more interesting is that its all retail selling. This shows that the big boys who were buying the last few weeks are holding onto their shares.

Perhaps it is best to get the dilution priced into the stock to begin with. That clears the way for the string of announcements which should help raise the price. I only wonder how many positive announcements they can sqeeze into the next month.

Lots of irony in your post. It is true we are influenced by "great expectations," and thereby more easily disappointed when things don't happen accordingly. As you say, we may see more cash going into the deal.

In any case, the worst case scenario of dilution is already out there. Unless LGND management is a lot dumber than I think, we will hear the diabetes announcement (or see the trial results) in the next 3 weeks. And they would be passing up a big opportunity if they did not have something new to say at the UBS conference.

As for what we think we know, what can I say? If the risk was not fairly high, then the possible reward would be less as well. I am reasonably confident that I will be sending Henry that bottle of wine before the New Year. However, I think he will have to wait a while for the second bottle (:>)

Appreciate your thoughts.
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