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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: GST who wrote (72627)10/23/2006 12:54:00 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
'..the US is no longer THE economic story in the world -- important, yes -- messed up, absolutely -- but the real story now is global growth and in that story we are but one of several forces. Our economy will stagnate. Our housing prices will make us look like fools. Our financial policies will make us look like morons. But in the end, the world will continue on its merry way, and markets will reflect those opportunities as surely as they will reflect our arrogance and stupidity, as somebody recently put it so nicely. Bottom line -- look beyond our shores to understand global companies in gloabl markets.'

Pretty much I am in agreement though I think the US consumer still carries a much bigger weight in global economic activity than you give credit for.. That said the spread of US consumerism and access to credit is such a big story I'm surprised the Republicans don't harp on it. Pure luck it happened under the watch of GWB<g>

The stupidity of our housing bubble is not nationwide here in the states. You can get a nice newer 2k sf house in good neighborhoods in many markets for #110-150k And commercial isn't necessarily overvalued either I just saw a REIT bought several hotels in Atlanta area for under $60k per room. A big contrast to folks paying $750k for a shack in SoCal or $1M for a condo/hotel unit in Miami Beach. Life goes on. When telecom and dotbombs were the rage in 1998-2000 stocks like Phillip Morris, Pulte Homes, Countrywide, Auto Zone and Pets Mart were dirt cheap and poised to make incredible runs while the sheep stuck in tech lost a bundle. In the end it is about the cash flow..

Where the deflation guys are completely off is to assume very low interest rates will not spur economic activity as long as our financial institutions remain sound. Wee need double digit interest rates to see who was swimming without a bathing suit when they take the water out of the pool. We will never really know if interest rates remain so low and financial institutions so eager to loan money..
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