chairman conyers is sharpening his gavel, lol
"Last Week’s Rating Changes Point to More Democratic Gains
By Bob Benenson | 11:43 AM; Oct. 23, 2006 | Email This Article
CQPolitics.com last week changed its ratings on 14 congressional races — one for the Senate and 13 for the House. And as has been the case throughout the fall, and through most of the year, the momentum continues to weigh heavily in favor of Democratic gains (view CQ Weekly's Election Forecast chart).
The rating on the Ohio Senate race, in which Republican incumbent Mike DeWine faces seven-term Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, was shifted to Leans Democratic from No Clear Favorite. That made DeWine the third Republican senator rated as an underdog by CQPolitics.com, joining Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum and Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chafee in attaining that unwanted designation.
DeWine also is the first Republican seen as slipping behind a Democratic challenger in a state carried by President Bush in 2004. DeWine is burdened by the plunge in voter approval of Bush over the past two years, and also by ethics scandals involving some other leading Ohio Republicans that do not personally involve him but have cast a shadow over the GOP in general.
Among the 13 House races, all of which show improved prospects for Democratic candidates, the most statistically significant changes were shifts of two races — in Pennsylvania’s 8th District and Wisconsin’s 8th District — to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. This knocked those two races out of the group of seats projected to be won by the Republicans (a sum of those rated Safe Republican, Republican Favored and Leans Republican), bringing the total to 207, compared to 209 for the Democrats.
That marked the first time this year that the Democrats were rated as having the edge in more House districts than the Republicans. Neither party has locked up the 218 seats needed for a majority. But with all 19 seats currently rated as tossups currently held by Republicans, it appears the party will at least have to brake the trend in the Democrats’ favor if they hope to hold the House.
Given the volatile and fast-moving nature of this year’s campaign, more ratings changes can be expected in this, the next-to-last full week of Campaign 2006.
Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races." |
