The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (72663)	10/23/2006 3:11:27 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 110194

We will know soon. I think the next 2-3 quarters will determine soft vs. hard landing. Housing related job losses will start soon. I posted this graph today showing what is about to happen to BLS reported residential construction jobs (Note: I shift starts 6 months into the future): The "Home ATM" is starting to dry up. Once YoY home prices are falling nationwide (will be reported later this year), it will be more difficult to extract home equity. Maybe this won't send the economy into recession. Luckily we don't have to wait much longer to find out.

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