I would appreciate it if someone could do some analysis on the possible life span of CYMI.
I agree it is crazy to think that any chip maker will be sitting on their hands for 6 months waiting for the next X-ray or what have you to materialize and have their throat cut by their competitors and to see their customers disappear. Short term therfore, CYMI is the only game in town and they should rasie price as much as the market can bear. However, I do agree with Jess that there is the legitimate concern of a limited life span for DUV. If the life span of the company is 7 -10 years, the P/E should be 7-10 so the capital can be recouped in 7-10 years. Moreover, the P/E should continue to shrink as time goes by. I don't know who would want to invest in a dead end business. Growth rate of the earnings has little meaning in this kind of situation. My questions concern the life span of CYMI.
(1) How far can DUV technology be extended ? From 234nm to 193nm to 100 nm ? For a company invested in DUV, how easy (expensive?) will it be to convert from 234 nm to 193nm or 100 nm ? Will there be incentive for the company to convert or to buy x-ray based or e beam based equipment just to go from 100nm to 70 nm ? Therefore, is there any possiblity that DUV can be extended beyond 7 -10 years on a cost effective bases even if e beam etc become viable for mass production in 7-10 years ?
(2) Is there life after DUV for CYMI ? -- Will EUV be competitive compare to e beam or any other forms new technology ? What is the physical limit the width of a chip can go down to ? My recollection of the conference call was that Cymi is working on EUV but base on gas phase and not solid phase technology as the INTC/AMD consortium is planning to do. Thus, can one conclude that CYMI has just as good a chance to move beyond DUV as anybody else ? In fact, since they are gaining market experience in doing DUV, they should be more competitive compare to others in term of production etc. If EUV is the next generation of things to come, CYMI should project its corp image as one of the strongest contender for the future of EUV just to give investor hope that CYMI is not a dead end game.
I do hope the collective wisdom of this thread can point the way. Jess, I am also one of the unlucky ones holding 10000 shares bought at an average cost of $32 after I repeatedly average up from a split adjusted $22.5. If not for the fact that IMNX gone up 6 point today I would have lost even more.Good luck investing! |
