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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Chas who wrote (3648)9/27/1997 8:40:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris   of 25960
 
Hi charles, you and Jay (MS analyst) are correct. There is a short term financial speedbump ahead of Cymer for the next 2 quarters. However, the long term prospects are bright for this company. Historically, the best time to buy strategic capital equipment companies is on bad news such as this. This is how the easy money is made. However, it is safer to incorporate a dollar cost averaging strategy and to be patient. This could play out for several quarters depending upon the successful execution of Nikon and Cannon which are legitimate short term risks. I have endured Jay's downgrades before and generally within 12 months of execution on the downgraded Co's part he restores his rating to buy and then strong buy. It is my belief he will do this with CYMI as the last paragraph of his report states that "CYMI is the class act and dominant supplier in the fastest growing segment of the equipment industry". Brett Hodess and Jay are good analysts and are trying to protect their annual bonus. Their timing is short term and those on the board with a 24 month horizon would be well served to average down on this issue as it moves to the low 20s. I do believe it will reach the old high. However, it will take longer than many on this thread expect. And it will be a volatile journey. The VLSI report pretty much confirms the short term nature of this problem. Those of you not familiar with Jay can reference his work on the CMP industry and IPEC in particular to better understand the jerkyness of the analyst ratings game. This should not distract long term objective investment. Stay the course.

Thanks to all for their participation and help on this thread.

Happy Investing,

Jay
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