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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: mistermj who wrote (206976)	10/26/2006 6:57:16 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) of 281500

It doesn't say anything about global peak oil...it only shows us where we have been. Sure it does. It doesn't say what you want it to. Again...your assumptions are static. All assumptions are static by their very nature. The precise amount of oil that's on the earth is unknown. I'm pretty sure that it's not infinite. I wouldn't have any difficulty at all finding the static assumptions in pangea.stanford.edu The answer is dynamic.I really don't think you get it. I gave you this link: peakoil.net It covers multiple views of peak oil. It doesn't appear that you dared to read many of the opinions. Read this if you dare...it lays out the fallacies and misuse of the Hubbert theory better than I can. Right. Tobacco growth is a great parallel to oil production. If oil demand exceeds supply, we'll just plant more crude oil seeds. We could have all vehicles in the future powered by vegtable oil and we won't need crude oil for combustion engines at all. I don't disagree with Gorelick's briefing in its entirety. He's absolutely correct in pointing out as I have on multiple occasions that the amount of oil the US uses from the mid-east is quite small [Aside: Which should prompt you to think about why so many politicians wave their arms about the need to reduce dependence on mid-east oil.] But we are dependent on mid-east oil for influencing the world price[s] of oil. Even if we didn't get a single drop of mid-east oil, they still influence the market price. We saw that very recently as the demand for oil drops during the summer to fall transition period. OPEC kept oil production steady. The answer is dynamic. I really don't think you get it. I'll say this about global predictions. They are ALL wrong. They will ALWAYS be wrong. That's the nature of predictions. You can't predict with accuracy how much oil is going to be discovered in the next 5 years or the next fifty years for that matter. You can't predict how much fuel efficiency will occur in the next 30 years with any accuracy. It's a question of what you do with the inherent inaccuracies of predictions. You can assume as some people do, that since you can't be precise we'll just ignore it and one way or another society and technology will change such that there will be no significant impact. That's very appealing because you don't have to do anything. You roll the die and take your chances. jttmab

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