Hi Jeff, Options are not showing anything decisive or incisive. I like to focus on open interest, the number of positions which must be closed out by expiration. It reveals whether someone is sitting on a large amount of stock through the options.
Recent activity has been slight, with the most noticeable change a slow and steady increase in out of the money calls (Nov 30's). Also worth noting is that 35 strikes have recently been listed as well as LEAPS (longer term options) out to May98. The Nov 35's started out over $1 (with the stock near 30) but are now under 50c.
You can see the picture yourself at
odds-onchoice.com
where you can also look at AOL options. AOL paints a much more interesting picture, as huge changes in open positions seem to occur frequently and suspiciously. I have reported some of these to SEC, CBOE.
While I agree the recent SGI price slump is worrisome, the options makret doesn't seem to be indicative of anything. The low volume on the stock seems to be a good sign - perhaps investors are scared of SGI and are afraid to jump in any deeper. Conversely, perhaps the earnings number range is becoming apparent and word is leaking out.
My comment about the media and "Myths" is we should all respect the media. The quality of one's products CAN be obscured by enough negative media. I have a cousin in the Valley who is under the impression that SGI's prospects are not good, that their competition is too tough. Her view may be wrong, but it can become true if enough people believe it.
As far as the recent tension on this thread, there is always risk, and some of us are in danger of being spooked. No guts, no glory! I strongly advise anyone who wants to bail out to go ahead and do so, because if they feel that way they shouldn't have gotten in to begin with! Jeff, you and I and the others that remain will enjoy the fruits of our labors ourselves.
Yours,
Bill |
