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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: buckbldr who wrote (73840)	10/27/2006 3:42:11 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) of 206191

Hers is the probem with Bullish argument for OSX-NatGas/shallow water/GOM drillers. NG has had its move and is very overextended. It could and should based on fundamentals move lower toward 5 area. That being said reading ESV numbers the stock looks expensive going forward. If you factor in a small slow down not drastic, but a slow down none the less, where should she trade? Historically if you believe OIL-Crude was maniulated as I do from the likes of Goldman, then you have to believe in a an expanding demand and eco growth fair value is between 42-62 on the highest and lowest end of spectrum. The problem is in current correction OIL has only briefly went below 58, this is leaving too much risk IMHO for another leg down which will take oil to that lower 50's and high 40's. ( I could be wrong, but I think OSX and crude have still a lot of risk at current levels----a lot of risk!) Now lets factor in slowing growth, slowing demand, less risk premium in oil and osx I believe we are 50 points off the NORM that osx 150-160 area. So folks enjoy the pop, but look very closely into rear view mirror, and by no means forget to look at those historical charts.

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