Food will initially be much cheaper during a collapse.
Later, after the farmers go bust, expect to see some strong differentiation by food types.
Tree crops, which require high initial investment, but low upkeep, and can be harvested by labor, will remain plentiful and cheap.
Most tree crops don't store well, with the exception of frozen orange juice and some types of nuts.
So these farmers don't have the option of siting on inventory.
Crops which require the annual input of seed, fertilizer, operating machinery, and harvesting machines, will become less availible.
Now many farmers have found they can skip a year or two of applying fertilizer, or apply only 1/4 the normal fertilizer, with only 5-10% drop in yields the next year. After a year or two, yields drop sharply unless fertilizer is applied.
Most grains can be stored for a number of years.
I remember one farmer and commodity speculator from Canada who was furious at one of thier wheat boards. This board limited their purchases, keeping the price to farmers low.
After they bought all of the harvest, they were able to wait only a few months, to then sell the crop at much higher prices.
I believe it took about 5-6 years into the great depression in the US before grain prices started to rise. |
