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Technology Stocks : Corel - Investors with no Humor
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To: David A. Lethe who wrote (109)9/27/1997 3:57:00 PM
From: revbill   of 1094
 
Dear David

i'll respond but lets change the discussion to the topic at hand, corel.
anyone who sells now and hopes to buy more shares later at a lower price
may be out of luck. lets say someone bought in at $9.00CDN recently and like
the rest of us is disgusted by the recent turn of events. they sell now
at $5.50 CDN, thereby locking in their loss of $3.50 per share. they still
like the company enough to watch for further weakness and a chance to
get back in at a lower price. the chance never comes because of any one
of these possibilities

1. takeover bid is made for $7CDN by a company that feels corel's products
and potential are worth far more than current prices. if this happened
the above mentioned investor is down 3.50 instead of $2 because they panicked.

2. one or more of the six announcements corel has mentioned actually
happens and the deal really helps cos. stock begins to climb and eventually
surpasses $9CDN. above investor locked in a loss when a little patience
would have yielded a profit.

3. cowpland yields to pressure and steps aside. stock goes up $2 right after
announcement.

4. new guy from dell (sylvester?) uses his contacts and expertise to revamp
sales force and numbers dramatically improve.

5. corel boys have intentionally understated Q4 numbers so that they can
create a "surprise". i know its hard to believe that these guys would
manipulate numbers but you never know.

i fully realize that there are at least as many negative scenarios but
i'm not sure if selling now is the right thing to do. experienced investors
use times like this to average down.

as a group we need to objectively try to determine if there is hope
for corel and if so how far down the road.

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