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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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From: wsw1	10/31/2006 1:46:25 AM
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1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets. 2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations. 3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red. 4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits. 5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues. 6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government. 7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit. 8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit). 9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms. 10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall. 11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions. 12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension. Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral. I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dear Jim and Dan, I may be shifting my view toward a less soft landing in the US. I am not sure yet about the economy. I still am not sure we will have a recession or just a slow down, but I have gradually been selling my position in SPY's and getting more defensive. The evidence seems to be tilting toward a shrinkage of bank credit. This is bearish and would indicate a recession if it continues in my opinion. A democratic house (or maybe congress) with Nancy Pelosi in charge will be hard on Pharma and big caps (WMT and XOM come to mind). I am shorting some indices in Pharma and big cap energy. I continue to like and hold my foreign energy and small cap non-American energy plus gold. I especially like the golds with base metal exposure as I believe strong demand continues from Asia. Your pal, Monty

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