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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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From: JohnM	10/31/2006 10:04:09 AM
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Josh Marshall sees a hint that the Allen campaign in Virginia may be losing votes as a result of their literary criticism. ---- (October 30, 2006 -- 11:59 PM EDT) Did Allen's gambit backfire? Winning the Virginia senate race was always going to be a real challenge. And it still will be. But something seems to have happened over the last several days in the wake of the Allen campaign's literary dumpster diving. Two polls came out today showing Webb ahead. One was a poll sponsored by Democrats that had Webb up 47% to 43%. This evening though CNN released a poll with a similar spread -- Webb 50%, Allen 46%. On top of that, another public poll is soon to be released which shows Webb ahead by a comparable margin. These are very thin leads. But they are leads. And they become more significant when you look at the record of polling in this race over the last three months. Here is the list of public polls in the race going back to July. We count 26 polls going back to July 24th. Before today only two of them had Webb in the lead. One was a Zogby poll from September 11th. But that was clearly an outlier. The other was from the 24th of this month. Now we have three polls coming out in a two day period with Webb on top. It seems clear that there's movement in Webb's direction. And it seems to have shown up after the novel extracts imbroglio hit the airwaves. I'm not sure we can draw a correlation between the two things. Numbers can move rapidly in the last couple weeks of a campaign as the undecideds start to come off the fence and people finally start to tune into the races. But it at least suggests the book quotes haven't hurt him. Webb may actually pull this off. Late Update: I see now that Zogby has just put out an 'interactive' poll showing Webb up by four points. But I consider the methodology of Zogby's interactive polls questionable. His phone polls are another story. -- Josh Marshall talkingpointsmemo.com

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