Bill C: Tracking down the problem with WSTL's stock price isn't easy. I do detect a less confident tone to your recent posts; there is a degree of rationalization going on. The pressure on the stock price is mainly demand related and quarter end related. Believe it or not some funds are up big thanks to WSTL. Some probably bought in or around 10-15...remember when?. So, you now have 9/30 approaching and some one wants to dump say 300-400k shares (my estimate). First reaction, the market makers know this so they cheapen the price through rabid inside short selling. Now they have created some demand to buy by future long term holders....someone who didn't want to buy at 25, 26, 27 probably would at 21, 22, 23. Realizing this you should just... leave the technical knowledge of the company on the doorstep for a moment. Think how a MM'er does his job. By the way a monkey could do it. You have a product to sell....you don't want to own all the product yourself, your job is to re-sell it for a profit as quickly as possible. So whatta ya do? Hear is a typical conversation: "You wanna sell 300k Westell sure I'll give $21 for the whole thing (stocks trading at $26) or we can try to work 25 50k per day, over the next week and see what we get...As a MM'er all you need to do is re-sell it quickly for 1/8, 1/4, 3/8 more. The stock is currently trading at $26. OK try 25-50k per day over the next week. So day one what happens? The stock goes down 2, then another 1, then another 1 now at 22....more selling...under 21...Brokers scramble to get their best customers in....the price bounces....now people believe its over...a bounce to 24, more selling back to 23. Is it over? I think so. Monday and Tuesday should be volitile but look for 23 1/2 to 24 by 9/30....That's my 2 Cents....hope it makes sense. By the way if we got any news or announcement while this is going on............All bets are off!!! Its called a reversal and equities such as WSTL are very prone to do this unlike commidities.
One side note from the previous WSTL conference call: "The numbers (of installations/equipment) being discussed are by far in excess of any estimates by the analyst community we've seen.
There is a cyber analyst roadshow in NYC this week WSTL goes on the block 10/2/97...I will try to get the http:// or at least report what I hear.
Bob |
