Re: "If the US pulls out, the Iraqi people would not have any possibility of self-determination."
Nonsense!
They don't need Uncle Sucker to mediate their civil war to have the ability to determine their own futures!
Re: "The Iranian backed Shiites would win very quickly."
Why on Earth would you say that? (You think the Sunni nations in the region would NOT oppose Iranian expansion? That's just CRAZY, it's the #1 thing on their minds! :-)
Points:
The Shia are ALREADY in control in the areas where their population dominates... but NOT where they are minorities (as in the Gulf regions of S.A., or Kuwait, or central 'Iraq', etc.) So, *that's* no change.
And, two, the Sunni world is *significantly* larger --- more populous & richer --- then the Shia minority is worldwide.
The US military and US Intelligence has ALREADY reported that the Sunni rebels are receiving "unlimited resupply and financial support" from neighboring Sunni nations... and, let us not forget that the bulk of the old Iraqi Army was Sunni.
Likely the lines of control wouldn't shift all that much inside of Iraq no matter *how* long the extremists on both sides fought each other. (&, all that would likely benefit long-term Western goals... a HELL of a lot more then current policies are.) Both sides (Sunnis with all the support from other Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan, etc., etc.) and the Shiites (with support from Persian Iran) are actually rather well balanced as far as military potential and sustainability go.
Re: "The question is, what would happen to the Kurds?"
Well... that's 'A' question!
Answer: they would STILL need the US to keep our other ally, Turkey, from rolling down on them like a ton of bricks.
And... not being ethnic Arabs, they would be somewhat exempt from the Sunni/Shia struggle to the south of them. |
