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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 178.29

-1.6%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (56512)	11/1/2006 3:03:34 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 196958

I’m estimating CY06 CDMA/WCDMA handset sales at 306M units, significantly above the Q’s current guidance of 290M (MP) units. At first glance this appears overly optimistic, however it ties closely to YoY percentage increases of about 45% on a quarterly basis throughout the year. CY06 reflects a healthy jump in Q4CY06 sales to 96M units, seemingly high but again reflective of typical holiday seasonal sales QoQ gains with ’06 at 28% in line with the past two years. CY WCDMA sales reflect 107M units, above the Q’s guidance of 100M units. I think you are putting a lot of weight into Nokia's 27 million unit estimate. I certainly hope that number is correct but the rest of the WCDMA unit commentary from Nokia and other manufacturers only support a small sequential increase in units. I see strength in the Christmas quarter but also below your 39 million unit number. With the pending on-slot of Q MSM enabled WCDMA handsets for 4Q06, I’ve ramped the WCDMA market share to the mid 30% range. I see zero chance at this number. I've been talking about sequential strength in Qualcomm's chipset market share, but that is off a very low base. The combined WCDMA shipments for Samsung/LG in the September quarter were less than 3 million units. I think the December and March quarters should be stronger but no where near the >12 million units that would be needed for your estimate. I honestly cant believe that you think that this is even remotely possible. You are going to be severely disappointed tomorrow unless you dial back your expecations. Slacker

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