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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 403.84-2.3%3:22 PM EST
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To: Thomas M. who wrote (3336)9/27/1997 6:47:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius   of 74651
 
Hi Thomas, >>Ralph Bloch noted the series of declining peaks on MSFT's chart, and expressed negative sentiment towards the stock. He said if it breaks 130, there is 10-12 point downside risk.

If you look at the 100 day chart here at SI you will see what he is looking at. Notice the lower highs from the $150+ high and he is looking at the point where we launched the run to $150+ which is around $130. He believes those that bought between $120 and $130 will then cash in at $130 or TA folks will short and/or cash in. Clearly we have had a daily bearish chart formation since we hit the high, but no one can see in the future.:-)

Now if you look at the 100 week chart here at SI it looks like we are in a trading range waiting for earning information. You will see many MSFT patterns like this if you go back to 1987.

I think the market sentiment for October will hinge on what kind of quality of earning we see. Frank C on wall street week last night predicted that earning would be a surprise on the upside this quarter and the market players will be happy. Personally I think peoples expectations are on the low side right now. I am sure he has talked to a few CFO's inorder to make this statement. He is generally right on his predictions. Time will tell.

I just follow the market and try and do what it is telling me to do.

Joan
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