"There won't be any conquer,"
Eh?????????
(What does that mean? 'No conquer' is EXACTLY the desired OUTCOME!)
"not that we really want conquest, but my point is there won't be a US victory or something that is in America's interest at the end."
Debatable point... I believe you missed the entire thrust of my argument though: the VERY FACT that an intramural inter-Islamic dirty civil war will be fought over the carcas of the artificial nation of 'Iraq' (between extremist/expansionist Sunni & Shiite forces, and the nation proxies for the Saudis & Gulf Arabs and the Persians) means that the secular/Western world stands to benefit.
ESPECIALLY with the forces so evenly divided between the Islamic forces.
The hope is that, ultimately, *both* sets of fundamentalist extremists will be discredited among their own peoples... and that, ultimately, the centuries-long delay in the 'Islamic Reformation' will have passed, and the same modus that enabled a rejection of intolerant religious rule in the West will finally be operant in the East... leading to a toleration for dissent, and more pluralism.
But, while awaiting this favorable (&, I believe, quite possible) outcome --- REAL and SUBSTANTIAL benefits will have ALREADY accrued for US national interests.
For one thing: with Islam falling upon itself there will be little focus directed OUTWARD. For another (as the decade-long Iran/Iraq Gulf War illustrated perfectly well!) these things are quite *expensive*. BOTH sides will have maximum pressure placed on them to pump full-out to pay for their religious war and the establishment of their zones of control.
All (largely) good for anyone out-of-area, or anyone who believes in pluralism and freedom from Theocracy.
Re: "I agree with Peter Dierks. We would be turning it over to one group of zealots or another."
Suggest you bone up on Sun Tsu and Clausewitz again. Remember: extremists *already* are calling the shots (so: little potential for 'downside' unless one group of them can establish a quick domination over the other.) THAT, is QUITE unlikely.
But... standing in the middle of a crossfire is *most* inadvisable. Better strategies then THAT are NOT hard to find. |
