[... the VERY FACT that an intramural inter-Islamic dirty civil war will be fought over the carcas of the artificial nation of 'Iraq' (between extremist/expansionist Sunni & Shiite forces, and the nation proxies for the Saudis & Gulf Arabs and the Persians) means that the secular/Western world stands to benefit.]
Re: "There is nothing intrinsic to such a war being fought in Iraq that benefits the US, so its not "the very fact that...". Such a war could in theory benefit the US but I doubt it would in practice."
You 'doubt'.
OK. Can you EXPLAIN why you think that?
[The hope is that, ultimately, *both* sets of fundamentalist extremists will be discredited among their own peoples...]
Re: "That's a hope, not an automatic or definite result, and you have to consider the problems that arise before this discrediting."
I DID explain that that was the *long-term* HOPE... but then I explained all sorts of short and mid-term benefits that would immediately accrue for us!
Re: "...Just pulling our of Iraq will give a boost to the forces that you hope to discredit."
(Funny... 'Cause US Intelligence has ALREADY concluded that STAYING as occupiers is RIGHT NOW providing the extremists a *huge boost* in support!)
And... just playing Devil's Advocate here: just which side in the Civil War are you imagining that will 'benefit' from the US leaving? The Sunni insurgents? Or The Shiite militias???????
Re: "The conflict you describe, should it occur, might give a further boost for quite awhile even if it does eventually serve to discredit them."
(EITHER WAY, it works for us!)
[For one thing: with Islam falling upon itself there will be little focus directed OUTWARD.]
Re: "There is no guarantee that all its energies will be directed inward...."
Correct.
There are no 'guarantees'... but bitter religious and ethnic-fired civil wars do TEND to *FOCUS* quite a bit the attentions and resources of the societies that have spawned them. :-)
Re: Certainly should one side or the other win, even on a local scale, it can build itself a base and expand its power."
And if pigs could FLY there would be bacon in the SKIES.
(I suggest you consider again the respective sizes and resources available to them between the Sunnis and the Shiites, and the Arabs and the Persians.)
[Remember: extremists *already* are calling the shots.]
Re: "No they are not. They are a factor, in certain ways or places, a major one, but they don't totally call the shots. However they might under your plan."
R-I-G-H-T..........
(Hell, Hitler and Stalin had a lot more in common then these players do.) |
