Tim I've been watching your and Buddy's back-and-forthing on the question about what would happen if the US pulled out precipitously from Iraq.
Seems to me neither of you are taking the the larger picture into consideration. Iraq isn't some little island in the middle of the Pacific, it has neighbors with some very definite ideas about what should happen to the little nation.
Turkey, to the north, very much wants to crush the fledgling Kurdish state on their border. Turkish Kurds are on the verge of joining with the Iraqi Kurds in a political union that would cause the stable Turkish government no end of trouble. Without US influence, there would be nothing to stop them.
Iran desperately wants control of Eastern Iraq with its large shi'ia majority. And I doubt anyone would think of Iran's motives as benevolent.
Syria and Saudi Arabia have a strong vested interest in the Sunni parts of Iraq, and if there were to be really strong Iranian and Turkish influences in the country, it isn't inconceivable that they would join to stop Iranian hegemony.
Jordan, caught in the middle, would probably have to join any Saudi-Syrian alliance just for self preservation.
Then, throw in the influence of other political partners, especially countries like Russia, Georgia, etc in the Caspian region, and the results would be too complicated to foretell, but I betcha they wouldn't be very good for the US or Israel.
To really complicate things in this new caldron of nationalistic and religious stew, think about the economic partners of various nations in the region, like China and France.
Right now, only the US forces in that little country are keeping things from boiling over. |
