In October, just 31.5% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s a startling decline of nearly six percentage points from 37.2% two years ago....
Democrats have also lost a little ground since October 2004. Today, 37.7% identify themselves as Democrats...
Compare that to the following more complete polls, I quote and then the full article:
"We asked, are you proud or ashamed of your political party, and 71 percent of the Republicans said that they were proud, which is not good. That means some 20 percent are not proud, are ashamed or not sure. But for the Democrats it was 64 percent who said that they were proud - meaning one in three are ashamed. So you tell me what this all means in the closing days of the election. What about that ashamed crowd? How are they going to vote?"
Methinks that currently US voters are quite unhappy with the behavior of their politicians, GOP or dems!
Here the complete article. Yes, from NewsMax , read it and then tell me NewsMax is always biased towards the "Bushies".
Taro
Zogby: ‘Republicans Are on the Ropes'
Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com
Thursday, Nov. 2, 2006
[]
One of the nation's leading pollsters says the Republicans are down, but not out, as they head into the final stretch toward the November midterm elections.
"Make no mistake about it, Republicans are on the ropes," declares John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, the hottest pollster in the country today.
But in an exclusive interview with NewsMax, Zogby acknowledges that the GOP could still make a late comeback as various Republican-leaning groups "come back home."
Zogby also tells NewsMax that the Democrats could win by a landslide if the GOP base stays at home … The Virginia Senate race between George Allen and James Webb may be the "surprise" this year … and there are strong doubts among Democrats about Hillary for president in 2008.
Zogby and his company have been tracking public opinion since 1984 – not only in the U.S. but at last count in 62 countries around the world. He regularly appears on network news plus NBC's "Today Show," ABC's "Good Morning America," and CNBC's "Hardball with Chris Matthews."
Zogby has also agreed to host a show on Nova M Radio, a new liberal radio network based in Phoenix, Ariz.
He took time to chat with NewsMax about the upcoming midterm elections, Sen. Barack Obama, and the extreme challenge of calling the contests right.
NewsMax: You must feel like Santa Claus on Christmas Eve.
Zogby: I do. The only difference is that Santa Claus gets to please all of the children all over the world. I only get to please about one half of them.
NewsMax: You're a busy man, so let's get right to the meat. Do you see a Democratic landslide in the midterms?
Zogby: If the election were held today - yes. But I am not convinced just yet, and I'm not hedging. There are a lot of undecided out there, anywhere from 15 to 20 percent undecided, which is very high. A lot of those undecided are Republican-leaning groups - evangelicals, self-described conservatives, who are disaffected from the Republicans. If they don't vote, then, yes, there is a huge landslide – 25 to 30 Democratic seats in the House and possibly a takeover in the Senate as well. But on the other hand, there is still time, and there is a sense that some of those Republicans are slowly, slowly starting to come back home.
NewsMax: Senator Barack Obama has announced he may toss his hat in the presidential ring. Are there poll numbers out there showing that support for Hillary is going soft?
Zogby: No, but there are Hillary doubters, and as strong as her numbers are in a crowded field, there are from 55 to 62 percent that don't support her, and it is not because they don't know her. Everybody knows Hillary. So the issue now becomes who becomes the great un-Hillary. If you recall, Democrats were in a similar position in ‘84 and Walter Mondale was pretty much running against himself. He did not get 50 percent in Iowa and Gary Hart emerged as the great un-Walter.
NewsMax: How strong is Obama? Could he be the great un-Hillary?
Zogby: Okay, let's look at Obama – 25 percent of those who cast Democratic votes nationally are African-American. Let's say Obama gets one half of those in our first poll - that is 12 points right there, and because he is hot and his name is big and he has the beginnings of a national profile, he picks up another five or six points. So, just by saying he is interested, he is already up there with Gore - and beyond Edwards and Kerry. He becomes a player automatically.
NewsMax: Are the Republicans rebounding from the Rep. Foley House page scandal?
Zogby: They are rebounding because it looks like they are getting some of their message back, but what was troubling in our poll last week for Reuters was that Democrats were given higher marks on handling ethics and government than Republicans, and that is the first time in a decade that the Democrats have out-polled the Republicans on that issue. So Republicans might very well stem the tide on the Foley thing - maybe salvage what otherwise is a horrible year by cutting their losses, but they have a lot of public trust to regain.
NewsMax: The old 3-Gs - guns, gays and God - played a significant role in 2004. Do you see these issues impacting in the swing states this year?
Zogby: Less so because you have very, very few Democrats in competitive districts who are against guns. In fact, the Democrats have made a concerted effort to find pro-gun candidates. The God part is really interesting because you do see the Democrats finding Jesus. But the other thing is that Republicans who vote - voted for God in 2004 - are among the most disaffected from the Republicans this year. They are the ones who are saying all right, we voted values and morals and what did we get? We got runaway spending, we got pro-choice, and we got more efforts towards gay unions than before. That is why you have this otherwise really knee jerk pro-God, pro-conservative constituency with a high undecided number.
NewsMax: Just how much trouble are the Republicans in?
Zogby: Make no mistake about it, Republicans are on the ropes. They are in big trouble.
NewsMax: The economy is doing well. There haven't been any more 9-11 type attacks. Just what's hurting the GOP?
Zogby: It is the war in Iraq - the public dissatisfaction with the handling of the war in Iraq and the daily reminders of what is going on. There is very little, if any, good news coming out of Iraq and that is the major issue.
NewsMax: The administration has started talking in terms of Iraq timetables. Has that been of any benefit to the Republican cause?
Zogby:Yes, because you are not getting timetables from the Democrats, and, ironically, that is the Democratic strength - they did not bring us this war, they did not wage this war. Their constituency especially wants to know how to get out of there - and there is no clarity coming from the Democratic leaders on a timetable.
NewsMax: Why don't the Democrats just bite the bullet and bring forth a plan?
Zogby: They are afraid. First of all, there isn't a united position. They don't want to disrupt the unity that they have, which is we are not George W. Bush and we are not the Republicans. But whether or not that's enough to energize their own base remains to be seen.
NewsMax: On that subject, who's ahead with romancing the base?
Zogby: We had a very interesting polling number come out the other day for Reuters. We asked, are you proud or ashamed of your political party, and 71 percent of the Republicans said that they were proud, which is not good. That means some 20 percent are not proud, are ashamed or not sure. But for the Democrats it was 64 percent who said that they were proud - meaning one in three are ashamed. So you tell me what this all means in the closing days of the election. What about that ashamed crowd? How are they going to vote? Boy, in a lot of these very close races, you are talking about a situation where both parties still have some rallying to do. That is why I am not prepared to make any facile judgments just yet about how this is going to turn out.
NewsMax: What race in your opinion will be the biggest surprise this election day?
Zogby: I think whatever happens in Virginia is a surprise - because it is so close. I have [Democrat James] Webb up by four. That really doesn't surprise me, but this has been going back and forth, back and forth. But I mention Virginia because it is bigger than [Sen. George] Allen versus Webb. It is the definitive battleground state for 2008. Fairfax County, Northern Virginia, is the fastest-growing region east of the Mississippi River, and it is changing the demographic and the ideological and partisan base of what had previously been a comfortable red state.
NewsMax: When you do an Allen-Webb poll in Virginia, do you poll more citizens from Northern Virginia because it has a greater density of population there, or is it strictly a random thing?
Zogby: That is a very good question. We do what is known as "random stratified sampling." The random part of it means that - to a degree that it is possible and there are limitations - every household should have the same chance of being called as any other. That is becoming more of a lofty principle than a reality, you know, with the do-not-call registry and so on. But it has to be random. Say I need to get 800 voters statewide. I know that we need to draw a sample statewide of about nine or ten times that. So figure 7-8,000 numbers, but we won't draw them purely randomly. We will draw them proportionately to the population by counties.
NewsMax: Let's go to some other specific races. Can Missouri Senator Jim Talent beat Democrat Claire McCaskill?
Zogby: Boy, it is a Missouri nail-bitter. There have been a lot of them over the last decade or so. The answer is "yes." I still have him ahead over McCaskill, but she is a big vote-getter. That one is simply to close to call.
NewsMax: Is Republican Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania a goner for re-election?
Zogby: I would think so. I have my navy blue crayon out here and I am ready to color Pennsylvania in blue, navy blue. I think it is going to be very, very difficult for him to win, particularly because he is running against a conservative Democrat. Pennsylvania is the land of conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans, and [Santorum's opponent] Bob Casey fits the conservative Democrat mold better than Santorum fits the moderate Republican mold. So, we did for a while have the race tightening, and there is always the potential that Bob Casey would fizzle as he did a couple of years ago. But with eight or nine days to go, it is going to be very difficult for Rick Santorum.
NewsMax: Of all of the races in the country, this one in Pennsylvania looks most like a referendum on Bush and the war. Agree?
Zogby: I think to some degree everything is a referendum on Bush and the war. I mean that is the underlying issue here, but Santorum is, of himself, you know, a pretty controversial character. He stands on his own record - stands or falls on his own record. He continuously gets among the lowest job performance ratings. Had he been running against a very liberal Dem that may have been a different story, but the Casey name is iconic in Pennsylvania.
NewsMax: Will Republican Senatorial candidate Michael Steele win in Maryland?
Zogby: I don't know, and you heard it here exclusively first. But, you know, there was evidence of it tightening. I have it as a nine-point race as of today. The Washington Post has it a 10 or 11-point race. I suspect that it is going to be closer. It does not look like Steele will win.
NewsMax: Do you think that the importance of this mid-term election and what's at stake is going to drive out the vote?
Zogby: No, no - despite high intensity feelings on both sides; despite the fact that we are at war and there is a lot of anger about the war. I think we are in a situation right now where Americans are distrustful of a lot of institutions, lots of them, and in that context the average turnout is 39 or 40 percent. If we looked at the distrust of institutions factor, turnout would be very low. If we look at the high intensity on the war, the turnout would be very high. That is where I think the two level each other out, and we are looking at a 39 to 40-percent voter turnout, which is pretty dismal.
NewsMax: As some of these candidates are running neck-to-neck coming down to the wire, is there any poll-shopping going on – looking for those critical positive momentum numbers, for instance?
Zogby: You hear about those things, but seasoned political consultants just don't do it because the potential to get bitten by that is big. This is why we have independent polls - so that candidates can't say with impunity, oh, you got me down 15 but our private poll shows us up by 12.
NewsMax: What's the secret to maintaining that independence?
Zogby: We maintain a balance. Instead of being non-partisan, we maintain a balance by being bi-partisan. We try to keep a balance between the numbers of Republican polls and the numbers of Democratic polls that we do. There are never two polls in the same district for opposing candidates.
NewsMax: When these polls use the magic term "likely voter," what is the calculus to determine who is a likely voter?
Zogby: Those who have voted in the past or are new, but tell us that they are definitely are very likely to vote. They have to pass a six-question screen in our poll.
NewsMax: We were joking about it, but just how busy are you in this final run-up to the midterms?
Zogby: You know, politics is only 16 percent of what we do. We are always busy – always preparing for the Super Bowl. For Reuters alone, we are doing 15 Congressional Districts and 10 Senate races. For the Wall Street Journal we were doing a total of 26 states. Add to that no less than a dozen other Congressional Districts, and then people forget that there are state races and mayoral races. That is just on the political side. There are referenda that we are doing as well.
NewsMax: The impact of cell phones on this whole polling process - is that a problem?
Zogby: It is not yet a crisis but it is a real problem. When I started in this business in 1984, the long-distance phone call was still a cultural event in the household. We used to have an average response rate of about 65 percent - meaning of everybody we reached on the phone, two-thirds agreed to take the poll. These days, the average response rates are anywhere from six to eight percent on the low end and 17 to 18 percent on the high end. |
