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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 147.19

-3.6%

Feb 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (56591)	11/3/2006 8:04:48 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 197507

I'm still going through the the numbers, but my first thoughts are that I really like Q's guidance. The internals of the numbers make them look beatable. For example... - I think it is probable that they will beat the '06 WCDMA estimate of 98 million units. Qualcomm did the same thing in the November guidance last year....bringing down guidance from 46 million units to 44 million units before eventually reporting 50 million units at the end of the year. I dont see quite that big a beat, but 100 million should certainly be possible, and if some of the important handset launches get delayed, they should still be able to get to 98 million. - They are guiding QCT margins sequentially down for next quarter. This puts them at the very low-end of their historical range. - They are only guiding for a 4% YoY increase in CDMA handsets. This gives them some room for downside if Reliance does transition to GSM....which had better not happen if they were the recipient of that $50 million last quarter!!! - No inclusion of Chinese 3G handset sales in next years numbers. - Their '07 QCT guidance only reflects a modest share growth over '06. The one number that was a bit higher than I expected is their WCDMA unit estimate of 175 million for '07. I definitely think that is achievable (and probable) but the number is a bit more aggressive than some of their other guidance. Overall, there is considerable room for upside to guidance.... Slacker

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